Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
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Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
42%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202742%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 39% on Oct 20, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.3K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 42% | 39¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 4.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CAATSA, Turkey
Search ›-
Coal mine blast in northern Turkey kills 3, leaves 5 hurtBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A methane gas… - Carney’s next stop: TurkeyA daily look inside Canadian politics and power. By ZI-ANN LUM and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY 10/22/2026 06:02 AM EDT Send tips | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading our Playbook. — The PM’s search for new allies…
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How the Mecca defense agreement between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will workThe Washington Post Turkey has submitted a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to its parliament for ratification ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s government has asked parliament to ratify a mutual defense agreement it signed… -
Big Chill Between Turkey and AzerbaijanDiplomatic relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan have deteriorated sharply following an address by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev asserting sovereign independence, which Ankara has interpreted as a rebuke of Turkish influence. The… -
Turkey’s Vestel Looks to Revamp Business Amid Bond RestructuringBloomberg.com Turkish electronics and appliance maker Vestel Elektronik expects the pressures that forced it into one of the country’s largest corporate Eurobond restructurings to persist, pushing it to rethink its business. It’s asking… -
Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probeTurkey jails 15 more in fund scandal, taking total to 114 IMF finds Turkey wealth fund omits audit from website disclosures Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probe Goldman Sachs warns Turkey’s $30 billion reserve loss could… -
Turkish Naval Forces test Barkan UGV in amphibious raidThe Turkish Naval Forces used HAVELSAN’s Barkan unmanned ground vehicle to support amphibious raid and urban warfare training and then to evacuate simulated wounded personnel during TURNAs-2026, the service’s unmanned maritime systems… -
Carney tours Kariye Mosque in Istanbul before departing TurkeyAfter three days spent fostering tighter economic and political ties with Turkey, Prime Minister Mark Carney closed out his trip at one of Istanbul's many great cultural landmarks. Carney visited the Kariye Mosque in Istanbul on Saturday… -
Turkey to tell Yemen FM Houthi attacks on civilians ‘unacceptable’Turkey jails 15 more in fund scandal, taking total to 114 IMF finds Turkey wealth fund omits audit from website disclosures Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probe Goldman Sachs warns Turkey’s $30 billion reserve loss could… -
Turkey suggests Libya’s rival administrations may be nearing reunificationTurkey jails 15 more in fund scandal, taking total to 114 IMF finds Turkey wealth fund omits audit from website disclosures Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probe Goldman Sachs warns Turkey’s $30 billion reserve loss could… -
2 Turkish municipalities face widening corruption investigationsThe arrests came as a separate investigation into alleged tender fraud at Milas Municipality in southwestern Muğla province led to 20 suspects, including the district's mayor, being referred to court. In Adana, a court ordered the arrest… -
Anand Meets Turkish Foreign MinisterWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. Today, the Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of Foreign Affairs, concluded a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.