Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 25, 2027 · $841 traded · $839 at stake · prices read 12 h ago

The odds

17.75%median
0%40%
Median 17.75%

How the odds have moved

Median: 20% on Oct 19, 17.75% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Iliana Yotova, ≥5% 57% ▼ 80 11¢ $9.09 309
Iliana Yotova, ≥10% 57% $1.74 400
Iliana Yotova, ≥15% 57% 85¢ $1.18 400
Iliana Yotova, ≥20% 44% 80¢ $1.25 275
Iliana Yotova, ≥25% 7% 79¢ $1.27 344
Iliana Yotova, ≥30% 6% ▼ 30 3¢ $33.33 164
Iliana Yotova, ≥35% 6% 25¢ $4.00 159

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Bulgarian, Yotova

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  • Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to runoff due to record low turnoutCNN · 39 h agoThe presidential election in Bulgaria on Sunday ended inconclusively, with the next head of state to be picked in a runoff, according to election officials. A record low turnout, attributed by observers to a general mistrust in politicians…
  • Bulgaria holds a presidential election dominated by economic hardship and the Ukraine warNBC News · 2 days agoBulgarians headed to the polls on Sunday to elect their next president in a campaign centered on growing economic hardship and drone attacks on Black Sea shipping. The vote will also be the first major test for the Moscow-friendly…
  • Poll: Yotova Leads Gyurov by 14.5 Points in Bulgaria's Presidential RaceNovinite.com · 5 days agoIliaana Yotova and Kiril Valchev lead Bulgaria’s presidential election race with 43.4% support, ahead of Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev at 28.9%, according to a nationally representative survey by polling agency Myara for the Bulgarian…
  • Bulgaria will vote for president as Ukraine and Black Sea drone attacks dominate campaignThe Washington Post · 4 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Bulgarians will vote…
  • Bulgarians vote to elect new president@pmnewsnigeria · 46 h agoBREAKING: Jigawa signs $10m deal with Indian firm to build modern hatchery Bulgarians on Sunday began voting to elect a new president, with 27 candidates contesting for the country’s top office. According to the country’s Central Election…
  • Bulgaria's presidential election heads to run-offYahoo News · 48 h agoBulgarian President Iliana Iotova came out on top in Sunday's presidential election but fell short of an outright majority, according to exit polls, setting the stage for a run-off against pro-Western challenger Andrey Gyurov. Surveys by…
  • Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to runoff voteThe West Australian · 43 h agoThe West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. The presidential election in Bulgaria has ended inconclusively, with the next head of…
  • Ukraine war divides Bulgaria as voters elect presidentYahoo News · 2 days agoBulgarians were voting in a presidential election on Sunday, as security concerns swirl following a series of drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea. Polling stations opened at 7:00 am local time (0500 GMT) and close at 8:00 pm. President…
  • Bulgarians Vote for President as Black Sea Drone Strikes EscalateKyiv Post · 2 days agoBulgarians are voting in presidential elections on Sunday as Russia’s war in Ukraine spreads to the waters off Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast. Polls place acting President Iliana Iotova, 61, and ex-caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, 50…
  • Bulgaria votes in presidential election amid divisions over Ukraine warintellinews.com · 2 days agoRussia's central bank holds key rate at 14%, raises inflation forecast Missile War Monitor: Oryol strike toll rises to three as Kyiv claims hit on Proton-Electrotex plant Missile War Monitor: Oryol missile strike injures eight; channels…
  • TRT World - Bulgaria's presidential election heads to November 1 runoffTRT World · 44 h agoBulgaria's presidential election will proceed to a runoff, as no candidate ticket secured more than 50 percent of the vote. According to unofficial results from polling agency Alpha Research released by Bulgarian National Television (BNT)…
  • Bulgaria votes for president as concerns grow over Black Sea attacksThe Manila Times · 46 h agoSOFIA, Bulgaria — Bulgarians will vote in a presidential election on Sunday as security concerns swirl following a series of drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea. President Iliana Iotova, who favors dialogue with Moscow and opposes…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions