October Unemployment Rate
4.19%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.12% – 4.25%
Install
Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.8% in Q4 2026?
The odds
64%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 70% on Oct 20, 64% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | ▼ 2 | 61¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 18.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?A one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
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Most New Jobs Reported Last Year Were Revised AwayWhen first reported, the 2025 monthly jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs for the year, Steve Rattner reports. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less than reported. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members… -
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… -
Hiring in September grew much less than expected, jobs report showsHiring grew much less than expected in September as a monthslong surge of inflation weighed on shoppers and rattled bond markets, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp… - When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.I wonder how bad it actually is right now in 2016. The Strait of Hormuz is open, traffic, on average, is about 70% of what it was before the war against Iran started, but industry experts also say about 80% of the oil coming out of the…
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Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrinkJobless rate falls to 5% as employers cut 2,000 jobs in September Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrink - Sacramento apartment rents slip as seasonal softness sets in… -
Sterling up after higher inflation: The British job report was overall mixed but rates are likely to rise next monthThe pound sterling has appreciated against most other major currencies in recent days after higher inflation than expected on 21 October increased further the probability of the Bank of England (BoE) hiking to 4% in November. This article… -
Brazil election: Lula supporters celebrate victoryBrazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term, beating right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. Tears and hugs as Lula supporters celebrate victory -
Brazil votes in narrow presidential runoffBrazil’s incumbent left-wing president faced off against his favored right-wing challenger Sunday in a narrow runoff election that will determine the direction of Latin America’s largest economy. If he wins, Flávio Bolsonaro would secure… -
Brazil election 2026: Live second round resultsAfter a shock defeat in the first round, the incumbent Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is seeking a new term in a runoff with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of his convicted predecessor Polls close at 17.00 BRT, 20.00 GMT, with… -
Brazil's Lula wins presidential election in runoff voteLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazil's president, coming from behind to beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that split the country almost evenly. Lula took 51.8% of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 48.2%, according to… -
Who are the candidates for the Brazilian election?Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote for their next president. They are choosing between Brazil's current left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, the son of…
Related markets
All jobs ›UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
0.28%median
-2%2.5%
Median 0.28%Middle half -0.38% – 1.02%
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5%5.0%
4.5%13%
US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
433,333median
250,000650,000
Median 433,333
US Leading Economic Index change in October (October 2026)
-0.12%median
-0.5%0.4%
Median -0.12%Middle half -0.3% – 0.05%
Mexico unemployment rate in October (Mexico UE Oct 2026)
2.72%median
2.5%3.5%
Median 2.72%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions