FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closed Wed 7:25 PM ET · $4K traded · $1.4K at stake

Settled YesA day before, traders gave it 95%.

The last odds before it closed

95%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 96% on Oct 20, 95% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
✓ Yes	95%					4.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, Bepirovirsen, GlaxoSmithKline

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FDA Approves Bepirovirsen, First Antisense Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis B@Contagion_Live · 4 days agoThe FDA approved bepirovirsen (Hibsago; GSK) with nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy for chronic hepatitis B, based on B-Well 1 and 2 functional cure rates of 19% vs 0% with placebo. The FDA approved Hibsago (bepirovirsen; GSK), the first…
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 2 days agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
FDA Approves Bepirovirsen Injection to Treat Chronic Hepatitis B@onclive · 4 days agoApproval was given to GSK, making its product the first antisense oligonucleotide established for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. The FDA approved GSK’s bepirovirsen (Hibsago) injection for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV)…
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News · 3 days agoFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses…
FDA Approves Bepirovirsen for Chronic Hepatitis B@MDMagazine · 5 days agoThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved bepirovirsen (Hibsago), the first FDA-approved antisense oligonucleotide for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, for use alongside existing antiviral therapy in certain adults…
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingNew York Post · 2 days agoA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted…
GlaxoSmithKline to sell business to Japanese firm@ripplesng · 3 days agoThe board of directors of GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria (GSK) Plc has accepted a binding offer from a Japanese firm, Suntory Beverage & Food Nigeria Limited, a subsidiary of Suntory Beverage and Food Limited (SBF) for the divestment of…
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketCBS News · 3 days agoNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that…
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT · 4 days agoSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on…
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023@AJMC_Journal · 38 h agoIn breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall…
FDA Approves Subcutaneous Risankizumab Induction for Crohn’s Disease@MDMagazine · 11 h agoApproval rests on the phase 3 AFFIRM trial, in which 56% of patients reached clinical remission at week 12 vs 30% with placebo. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a subcutaneous induction regimen of risankizumab-rzaa…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAppliedXL

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$4K (4,184 contracts)

This week$4K

At stake$1.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA's decision on Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions