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Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026
The odds
81.33%median
80.5%86%
Median 81.33%Middle half 81.15% – 81.69%
How the odds have moved
Median: 82.65% on Oct 20, 81.33% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 81% | 97% | ▼ 2 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 50.00 |
| Above 81.5% | 27% | ▲ 14 | 26¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 801 |
| Above 82% | 23% | ▼ 16 | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 4.2K |
| Above 82.5% | 22% | ▲ 14 | 18¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 4.0K |
| Above 83% | 11% | ▼ 14 | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.0K |
| Above 83.5% | 8% | ▼ 3 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 4.5K |
| Above 84% | 5% | ▲ 3 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 2.3K |
| Above 84.5% | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.2K | |
| Above 85% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 775 |
| Above 85.5% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 104 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Air
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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $57.38Posted by Mitch Edgeman on Oct 24th, 2026 View Our Latest Stock Analysis on Alaska Air Group Here are the key news stories impacting Alaska Air Group this week: Alaska Air Group, Inc is an airline holding company headquartered in Seattle… -
Morgan Stanley Keeps Their Buy Rating on Alaska Air (ALK)In a report released today, Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy rating on Alaska Air, with a price target of $78.00. Shanker covers the Industrials sector, focusing on stocks such as Alaska Air, CSX, and Knight… - Alaska Air Group Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) reported a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $147 million, or $1.32 per share, as elevated fuel costs weighed on profitability despite higher revenue and improving…
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Alaska Air Group says Hawaii market remained a drag in 2026, but sees conditions improving in 2027Thursday, October 22, 2026 73° Today's Paper Today • Updated 11:51 p.m. The president and CEO of Alaska Air Group said the company will deploy its 37 new freighters in Alaska and Hawaii next year as part of a planned cargo expansion Hawaii… -
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock ForecastsAlaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. JBLU: Lowering target price to $2.00 SKYW: Lowering target price to $88.00 ALGT: Lowering target price to $66.00 JBLU: What does Argus have to say… -
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptAlaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 21, 2026 11:30 AM EDT Ryan St. John - Vice President of Finance, Planning & Investor RelationsBenito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director and CEO of Alaska AirlinesAndrew Harrison… -
Transcript : Alaska Air Group, Inc., Q3 2026 Earnings Call, Oct 21, 2026Presentation Operator MessageOperator Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being Alaska Air Group, Inc. Transcript : Alaska Air… -
Alaska Air posts $147M quarterly loss as high fuel prices take tollPassengers of Horizon Air's first nonstop service from Portland to Wenatchee deboard Saturday, Oct. 5, 2026, at Pangborn Memorial Airport. Horizon Air has been owned by Alaska Air Group since 1986 and adopted the brand and aircraft paint… - Alaska Air Group, Inc. Provides Earnings and Operating Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2026Published on 10/21/2026 at 06:22 am EDT Alaska Air Group, Inc. provided earnings and operating guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. For the quarter, looking ahead, demand remains healthy, with commercial momentum continuing into the…
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Tech Moves: 2 Microsoft execs depart; Kymeta hires former CIA leader; Alaska Air names CITOTech Moves covers notable hires, promotions and personnel changes in the Pacific NW tech community. Submissions: [email protected] by Lisa Stiffler on Oct 21, 2026 at 3:51 pmOctober 21, 2026 at 3:59 pm — Kymeta has appointed former CIA… -
American Airlines, Alaska Air lead list of undervalued industrial stocksA quantitative screen of industrial stocks identifies 14 companies with attractive valuation grades, led by American Airlines Group AAL, Alaska Air Group ALK and StandardAero SARO. Seeking Alpha's valuation grade measures how attractively… - Alaska Air Group Forecasts Q4 Loss as Fuel Costs ClimbSEATTLE — Alaska Air Group expects a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of US$2.00–US$2.50 per share as rising fuel costs outweigh revenue growth at the parent of Alaska Airlines (AS) and Hawaiian Airlines. The group’s October 20 results put its…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions