Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 1
- November 3099%▲ 1
- December 3199%▲ 14
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Affirm gross merchandise volume in Q1 (gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027)
The odds
$14.31Bmedian
$12.75B$15B
Median $14.31BMiddle half $13.96B – $14.71B
How the odds have moved
Median: $14.31B on Oct 20, $14.31B now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $13 billion | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 14.00 | |
| Above $13.25 billion | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.00 | |
| Above $13.5 billion | 92% | 87¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 227 | |
| Above $13.75 billion | 85% | 80¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | ||
| Above $14 billion | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 1.2K | |
| Above $14.25 billion | 54% | 49¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 547 | |
| Above $14.5 billion | 37% | 32¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | ||
| Above $14.75 billion | 23% | 18¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 150 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Affirm
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New York's top court affirms law shifting local elections to even-numbered yearsOctober 17, 2025 / 10:18 PM EDT / AP New York's highest court on Thursday upheld a law shifting local elections to even-numbered years, bringing most county and town elections in line with statewide and federal races. The state Court of… -
‘Love Language’ Review: Chloë Grace Moretz Sells Words of Affirmation in an Old-School Romcom With Gen-Z TrappingsMuch has been written on the new dating politics practiced by Gen-Z — more progressive socially, more conservative sexually, if you believe the hot takes, which you probably shouldn’t. Either way, that sensibility has yet to trickle down… -
AM Best Affirms Stellar Insurance RatingsAM Best affirmed Stellar Insurance’s ratings with stable outlooks, citing strong performance and its role within Saudi Aramco. The ratings agency said, “AM Best has affirmed the Financial Strength Rating of A [Excellent] and the Long-Term… -
Affirm Holdings, Inc. 78P-DE:XETRACheck out Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s stock price (78P-DE) in real time CNBC Affirm Holdings, Inc. 78P-DE:XETRA There is no recent news for this security. -
Fitch Affirms Ukraine at 'CCC'.. Forecasts Economy to Grow 0.2% in 2027Ukraine’s economy is expected to return to modest growth of 0.2% in 2027 after a slight contraction in 2026, as the ongoing war with Russia continues to weigh on economic activity and public finances, according to Fitch Ratings. Fitch… -
Why Affirm is incorporating LLM tech into its underwritingThe success of large language models such as ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini has always rested on their ability to predict what comes next. Affirm is incorporating that same transformer-based technology into its underwriting models with the… -
NY appeals court affirms drug convictionsA state appeals court has upheld drug convictions and denied defense claims of ineffective counsel. Defendant Shamere Thomas was convicted in March 2022, before state Supreme Court Justice Alex R. Renzi, of third-degree criminal possession… -
Hyderabad’s Osmania General Hospital strengthens gender-affirming surgical care for transgender peoplePublished - October 25, 2026 08:56 pm IST - HYDERABAD The Osmania General Hospital (OGH) in Hyderabad has established a dedicated gender-affirming surgery service in the government healthcare sector in Telangana, marking a step towards… -
Berenberg Affirms Hold Rating on EnagásBerenberg on Friday maintained its rating on Spanish energy infrastructure company Enagás at hold and kept its price target at 16.20 euros. ... Oil & Gas Transportation Services Berenberg Affirms Hold Rating on Enagás Published on… -
ICE affirms in court documents there are no plans to build detention center in NewportPublished 2:15 pm Saturday, October 24, 2026 No new Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centers are slated for construction in Newport, Oregon, anytime soon, and the federal government will provide at least a month’s notice to… -
Fitch Affirms, Withdraws Ratings on Danish Insurer Alm. BrandFitch Ratings affirmed its long-term issuer default rating on Alm. Brand at A, with a stable outlook, before withdrawing all ratings on the insurance company. The rating agency noted in a Tuesday... Property & Casualty Insurance Fitch… - Qt Imaging Holdings, Inc. Affirms Earnings Guidance for the Year 2026QT Imaging Holdings, Inc. affirmed earnings guidance for the year 2026. For the year, the company expects revenue guidance of approximately $39 million, which would represent more than double our 2025... Published on 09/15/2026 at 03:30 pm…
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6 more
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United Airlines Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
106.7median
91117
Median 106.7Middle half 105.1 – 109.7
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
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Walmart Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
99.3median
92112
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Largest Company end of December 2026?
62%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA62%▲ 3
- Apple35%▼ 3
- Alphabet1%
5 more
- Microsoft<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions