ADP employment change in Oct 2026?

Kalshi Economy › Jobs Closes Nov 4 · $4.1K traded · $2.8K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

78Kmedian

-50K150K

Median 78KMiddle half 46K – 95K

How the odds have moved

Median: 80K on Oct 20, 78K now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above -25000	97%	95¢	99¢	$1.01	1.1K
Above 0	94%	89¢	99¢	$1.01	403
Above 25000	85%	45¢		$1.18	1.3K
Above 50000	73%	41¢		$1.37	1.6K
Above 75000	55%	50¢	60¢	$1.67	494
Above 100000	17%	12¢	22¢	$4.55	314
Above 125000	9%	6¢	11¢	$9.09	4.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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ADP employment change in Nov 2026?

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Will North Carolina pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs rise YoY? (December 2026)

31%chance▲ 18

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onADP

Trading closesNov 4, 2026 8:14 AM ET

Traded$4.1K (5,252 contracts)

This week$4.1K

At stake$2.8K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the ADP Employment Change in Oct 2026 is above -25000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.032+0.25%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.