Trump out as President before 2027?
5%chance▲ 1
Install
How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
The odds
16.63%median
0%35%
Median 16.63%Middle half 12.33% – 23.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: 16.67% on Oct 19, 16.63% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 18.00 | |
| Above 10% | 86% | 82¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 642 | |
| Above 15% | 63% | ▼ 1 | 59¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 279 |
| Above 17% | 47% | ▼ 1 | 43¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | |
| Above 20% | 33% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 511 |
| Above 25% | 21% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 50.00 |
| Above 30% | 11% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 25.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: ACA Marketplace
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ACA Marketplace plans no longer in-network at Children's Mercy effective Jan. 1, 2027KSHB 41 Kansas City ACA Marketplace plans no longer in-network at Children's Mercy effective Jan. 1, 2027 - ACA Marketplace plans to drop Children’s Mercy as an in-network providerChildren’s Mercy announced Tuesday evening on social media that health plans offered through the Affordable Care Act Marketplace have excluded the pediatric health system as an in-network provider. Children’s Mercy said the coverage change…
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Peak Health expands coverage options for West Virginians with 2027 ACA Marketplace launchThe Sheriff of Upshur County is accepting applications for a full-time tax deputy position with benefits. Applications are available at the Tax Division, 38 W. Main Street, Room 101, in Buckhannon and must be received by 4 p.m. Friday… -
Health Insurance Is the Hidden Wall Between Middle Age and Early RetirementAs seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 24, 2026. u/petthezoo ▲ 125 upvotes 196 comments Use the ACA marketplace AND manage your MAGI. Early retirement math lives or dies on health insurance, and 196 comments point to the same… -
Trump mistakenly celebrates ‘highest’ Black poverty rate while touting his economyThe Black poverty rate has declined, but an economist tells the Grio that Trump administration policies could make those gains short-lived. President Donald Trump made a noticeable slip during a recent campaign rally, in which he… -
Children's Mercy confirms Springfield services safe from ACA plan changesSkip the blur: Unlock a full year of access for just $40, or join our monthly plan for $4! Children’s Mercy services in Springfield will not be affected by the hospital’s exclusion by health plans offered through the Affordable Care Act… -
Missouri director: Children’s Mercy, insurers talking, but no quick fix to coverage issuesKANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) — Since Tuesday night, families have been asking questions when Children’s Mercy shared that it will no longer be in-network with any ACA Marketplace plan in January. On Friday, the Missouri Department of Commerce… -
New Poll Shows Americans Face Financial Strains With Healthcare Amid Midterm ElectionsNearly half (46%) of working-age adults in America had inadequate health insurance coverage by mid-2026, according to a new poll published by The Commonwealth Fund, a non-profit organization that supports independent research. This means… -
Elevance Earns $1.4 Billion Quarterly Profit as Membership Falls by 487,000 and Insurer Calls 2026 the Medicaid TroughElevance Health, the parent of Anthem and Wellpoint plans, reported a $1.4 billion third-quarter profit on October 21 while covering 487,000 fewer people than a year earlier. Executives told investors that 2026 marks the low point for the… -
Uninsured Rate Rises to 11.2% as Coverage Erodes Before Medicaid CutsNearly half of working-age adults were inadequately insured in 2026, and half went without needed care due to cost, a Commonwealth Fund survey found. The uninsured rate among US adults aged 19 to 64 years rose from 8.9% in 2024 to 11.2% in… -
Parents of Children’s Mercy cancer patient search for solutions amid ACA insurance changesKasey and Tim Jackson said they sold their beauty brand company so they could stay by their 13-year-old son's side during his leukemia treatments at Children's Mercy. On Tuesday, Children’s Mercy told families changes to ACA Marketplace… -
1-on-1 with (D) Don Coover, Kansas 2nd Congressional District candidateKCTV 1-on-1 with (D) Don Coover, Kansas 2nd Congressional District candidate 1-on-1 with (R) Derek Schmidt, Kansas 2nd Congressional candidate 1-on-1 with (L) John Hauer, Kansas 2nd Congressional District candidate 1-on-1 with (D) Juan…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions