Largest Company end of December 2026?
60%NVIDIA
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5 more
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American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3 (passenger load factor in Q3 2026)
Settled 83.4%A day before, traders had a median of 84.18%
The last odds before it closed
1%Above 83.5%
- Above 83.5%1%▼ 88
- Above 84%1%▼ 64
- Above 84.5%1%▼ 42
- Above 85%1%▼ 9
- Above 85.5%1%▼ 2
- Above 86%1%▼ 1
- Above 86.5%1%
- Above 87%1%▼ 1
- Above 87.5%1%
- Above 88%1%
How the odds have moved
Above 83.5%: 88% on Oct 20, 1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 22, 1 PM ETAbove 83.5%: 90% → 1%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ Above 83.5% | 1% | 11.5K | ||||
| ✗ Above 84% | 1% | 19.9K | ||||
| ✗ Above 84.5% | 1% | 10.1K | ||||
| ✗ Above 85% | 1% | 21.1K | ||||
| ✗ Above 85.5% | 1% | 17.0K | ||||
| ✗ Above 86% | 1% | 12.5K | ||||
| ✗ Above 86.5% | 1% | 28.1K | ||||
| ✗ Above 87% | 1% | 19.3K | ||||
| ✗ Above 87.5% | 1% | 18.2K | ||||
| ✗ Above 88% | 1% | 19.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: American Airlines
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American Airlines says airfares could stay elevated even if fuel prices dropGen Z travelers are cutting back on dining, haircuts and everyday expenses to afford trips as homeownership and other traditional milestones feel increasingly out of reach. American Airlines issued a warning that airfares are likely to… -
American Airlines flight to Guyana returns to Miami after passenger allegedly threatens crewOctober 22, 2026 / 11:21 PM EDT / CBS Miami An American Airlines flight bound for Guyana diverted back to Miami International Airport on Thursday evening after a passenger allegedly threatened a flight attendant during the aircraft's… -
American Airlines expects deeper 2026 loss on pricier fuel despite record revenueAmerican Airlines forecast deeper losses this year as record revenue failed to help the airline recover from this year's spike in fuel costs. American on Thursday said it expects to lose between $1 and $1.60 a share, on an adjusted basis… -
American Airlines widebody order expected by year-end despite weaker Q3 resultsDuring the carrier’s conference call, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) Nat Pieper revealed that it was in the process of planning its new widebody order which it hopes to finalise by the end of the year. While few details were disclosed, the… -
American Airlines Adds Capacity to Level 3 Advisory DestinationsAmerican Airlines is expanding service into destinations covered by Level 3 U.S. travel advisories, raising fresh questions about how carriers weigh risk and demand. American Airlines is adding and restoring routes to destinations that… -
American Airlines Expands Flying Into Level 3 Risk ZonesAmerican Airlines is adding seats into destinations covered by U.S. Level 3 travel advisories, sharpening debate over how carriers serve higher‑risk markets. American Airlines is moving to increase capacity on routes into countries covered… -
American Airlines brake issue prompts emergency landingCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Brake issue on… -
American Airlines plane blows tire after landing O'Hare AirportCBS News American Airlines plane blows tire after landing O'Hare Airport Pat Brady weighs in on Stratton, Tracy Illinois U.S. Senate debate 2 studies look at health benefits of blueberries, cranberries Gradual warmth continues Wednesday in… -
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Issues Q4 2026 Earnings GuidancePosted by Mitch Edgeman on Oct 23rd, 2026 Get Our Latest Stock Report on American Airlines Group Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week: American Airlines serves destinations throughout the United States… -
American Airlines 'not satisfied' as fuel costs derail profit pushDALE™, developed in collaboration with global mobile robotic… SEATTLE (TNS) — The last time Washingtonians voted on an inc… An American Airlines plane taxis to the gates of Terminal C at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on July 23… - American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Releases FY 2026 Earnings GuidancePosted by Tristan Rich on Oct 23rd, 2026 American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL – Get Free Report) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Friday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of -1.600–1.000 for the…
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American Airlines flight reports mechanical issue ahead of Bradley landingWINDSOR LOCKS, Conn. (WFSB) - An American Airlines flight landed safely Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks on Friday after reporting an issue. According to the Connecticut Airport Authority, the flight reported a mechanical…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions