2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 For Nov 7, 2028 · $1.6K traded · $897 at stake · prices read 48 min ago

The odds

-26.6median
-538538
Median -26.6Middle half -96.5 – 56.7

How the odds have moved

Median: -23.9 on Oct 20, -26.6 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democratic by 211 or more 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 3.1K
Democratic by 131 to 210 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 2.0K
Democratic by 91 to 130 13% 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 1.9K
Democratic by 61 to 90 12% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 1.1K
Democratic by 31 to 60 10% 9¢ 10¢ $10.00 691
Democratic by 11 to 30 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.1K
Democratic by 1 to 10 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
Republican by 1 to 10 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.9K
Republican by 11 to 30 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 1.1K
Republican by 31 to 60 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 482
Republican by 61 to 90 9% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 1.9K
Republican by 91 to 130 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 1.9K
Republican by 131 to 210 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.1K
Republican by 211 or more 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Electoral College

Search ›
  • Why the Winner-Take-All Electoral College Silences Independent VotersThe Fulcrum · 7 days agoWashington DC against the background of the US flag, USA The "All-or-Nothing" Rule: In 48 states and Washington, D.C., a presidential candidate who wins a simple plurality of a state’s popular vote receives 100% of that state’s electoral…
  • Kamala Harris calls to expand Supreme Court, change Electoral CollegeFOX One · 9 days agoWatch Kamala Harris calls to expand Supreme Court, change Electoral College - Fox & Friends FOX One Kamala Harris calls to expand Supreme Court, change Electoral College Brian Kilmeade reacts to Kamala Harris's campaign trail statements…
  • Kamala Harris calls for Supreme Court expansion, Electoral College reformFox News · 11 days agoFox News Kamala Harris calls for Supreme Court expansion, Electoral College reform Former Vice President Kamala Harris called for Supreme Court expansion as well as Electoral College reform on Tuesday, as she listed what Democrats can do…
  • Revisit 2020 election results maps as 2024 results come inCBS News · 6 days agoUpdated on: November 7, 2024 / 11:01 AM EST / CBS News Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were separated by only razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states that were key to the 2024 presidential…
  • Secretary of State Mark Hammond Certifies South Carolina’s Nine Electoral Votes for Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vancesos.sc.gov · 6 days agoCOLUMBIA -- Secretary of State Mark Hammond convened the 2024 Electoral College on Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 11:00 AM in Columbia, South Carolina. “Every four years, the members of the Electoral College gather to represent the will of…
  • Electoral Collegefoley.wsu.edu · 12 days agoWhat about abolishing the Electoral College? Monday, April 29, 2019 Senator Brian Schatz recently introduced a joint resolution in Congress to eliminate the Electoral College. Several Democratic presidential candidates, state legislatures…
  • Democrat running for SC secretary of state wants to change the office’s dutiesYahoo News · 6 days agoCOLUMBIA — The Democrat seeking to oust South Carolina's longtime secretary of state wants to change the job description. Jason Belton's campaign platform includes "restoring election integrity" to bring "accountable leadership at the…
  • Letter | The power of being a purple stateThe Cap Times · 8 days agoDear Editor: In 2028, 36 states (plus Washington, D.C.) will provide exactly 195 Electoral College (EC) votes to Democrats and 205 votes to Republicans. They did it in 2016, in 2020 and again in 2024, all in exactly the same way, no…
  • This Washington county has predicted the president longer than anywhereopb · 6 days agoIn mid-October in Port Angeles, the Clallam County Republicans hosted a “Candidate Oktoberfest” at an old grange hall: beer and brats for a few bucks, three free hours of stump speeches, and as much ... This Washington county has predicted…
  • No Kings rally in Lima encourages early voting ahead of November election@LimaYNN · 8 days agoA No Kings rally in downtown Lima encouraged residents to vote in the Nov. 3 election as Ohio's early voting period approaches its Nov. 1 deadline. LIMA, OH (WLIO) — A No Kings rally in downtown Lima encouraged residents to take part in…
  • The Five Interlocking Legal Pillars of the DNC@AmericanThinker · 8 days agoCongress, courts, climate, capitalism, and the electoral college. Matthew G. Andersson | October 17, 2026 While it is hard to take Kamala Harris seriously, to the Democratic National Committee, she was their legitimate vice president of…
  • Larry David: Suggestions for the Democratic Socialists of AmericaDrudge Retort · 7 days agoLarry David, the newest member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has some suggestions for the party -- starting with mandatory siestas and pet bereavement leave Posted by lee_the_agent at 05:32 PM | 5 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment…

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  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
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  • Rahm Emanuel1%
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  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
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  • Jalen Brunson<1%
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  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
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Elections › President 2028

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17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
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  • Gavin Newsom17%
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50 more
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  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Pete Buttigieg5%
  • Andy Beshear3%
  • James Talarico3%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Raphael Warnock2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
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  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
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  • Michelle Obama1%
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  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
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  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
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  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
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  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
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  • Erika Kirk<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions