Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
82%chance▲ 1
Install
New pandemic in 2026?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | $1.3M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic
Search ›-
What shapes a virus's pandemic potential? SARS-CoV-2 relatives yield cluesTwo of the closest known relatives to SARS-CoV-2 -- a pair of bat coronaviruses discovered by researchers in Laos -- may transmit poorly in people despite being genetically similar to the COVID-19-causing virus, a new Yale study reveals… -
Nigeria: Diphtheria Outbreak - Jan 2023Since the beginning of 2023, 557 confirmed cases of diphtheria have been detected in Nigeria, affecting 21 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. (WHO, 27 Apr 2023) The outbreak has reached alarming proportions, with 32 states… -
Tomori urges investment in pandemic preparedness to avoid trillion-dollar lossesProf. Oyewale Tomori, a renowned virologist, has urged African governments to invest consistently in pandemic preparedness to avert the enormous human and economic losses associated with major disease outbreaks. Tomori made the call in a… -
WI Daily Update: Ongoing EHD outbreak impacts more than 2,300 deerHome » From The Pages of WI ODN » WI Daily Update: Ongoing EHD outbreak impacts more than 2,300 deer Wisconsin’s largest known outbreak of EHD has now killed or sickened at least 2,370 deer. Here’s what to know about the outbreak… -
Severe weather update: Severe storm outbreak for eastern AustraliaThe Bureau of Meteorology Javascript is disabled. Information may not appear correctly. For the best website experience, activate Javascript. Severe weather update: Severe storm outbreak for eastern Australia Video current: 12:00 pm AEDT… -
UK to set up AI ‘biosecurity lab’ to detect risks of future pandemicsA new “biosecurity lab” will seek to use AI to protect against potential future pandemics as part of a package of investment in the technology, Chancellor John Healey has announced. Backed by up to £200 million from OpenAI and Anthropic… -
Government and AI giants to set up ‘world first’ pandemic-prevention labThe announcement comes amid wider government efforts to harness AI Chancellor John Healey has announced a new “biosecurity lab”, which will use AI to help protect the UK against pandemics of the future, as part of a package of investment… -
CDC sends disease detective to Pennsylvania to investigate measles outbreakCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CDC sends… -
See the Oct. 26, 1926, front page: Two gangsters slain in outbreak between former KKK foesHeadlines from the Oct. 26, 1926, front page include: Headlines from the Oct. 24, 1926, front page include: Reports $250,000 GOP fund sent to win Missouri Headlines from the Oct. 25, 1926, front page include: Man beaten by two robbers in… -
Disease outbreak impacts hunting in North Dakota’s southwestern unitsAn outbreak of epizootic hemorrhagic disease has been detected in hunting zones in south-central and southwestern North Dakota, prompting the state’s Game and Fish Department to make changes to certain units, including prohibiting the… -
Severe weather update: Major weekend severe storm outbreakIt’s already been a really wet week, particularly across south-east Queensland. We’ve already seen plenty of flash flooding and more is possible over the next few days. Storms are on the forecast for Brisbane and Canberra, as well as… - Major Severe Storm Outbreak Expected This WeekendIt's already been a really wet week, particularly across south-east Queensland. We've already seen plenty of flash flooding and more is possible over the next few days. Storms are on the forecast for Brisbane and Canberra, as well as…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions