OK-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › House Closes Nov 3 · $2.3K today · $28.1K traded · $719 at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

25%Republican 40-45%
  • Republican 40-45%25%▲ 9
  • Republican 35-40%21%▼ 6
  • Republican 45-50%21%
  • Republican 50-55%12%▼ 4
  • Republican 30-35%8%▼ 16
  • Republican 60%+7%▲ 4
  • Republican 20-30%5%▲ 3
  • Republican 55-60%3%
  • Republican 0-20%1%
  • Democrat Wins1%

How the odds have moved

Republican 40-45%: 25% on Oct 20, 25% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 11 PM ETRepublican 40-45%: 16% → 25%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 23, 11 PM ETRepublican 40-45%: 20% → 10%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Republican 40-45% 25% ▲ 9 25¢ 28¢ $3.64 $5.8K
Republican 35-40% 21% ▼ 6 21¢ 28¢ $3.57 $4.6K
Republican 45-50% 21% 10¢ 39¢ $2.56 $9.6K
Republican 50-55% 12% ▼ 4 5¢ 22¢ $4.48 $497
Republican 30-35% 8% ▼ 16 6¢ 12¢ $8.33 $5.4K
Republican 60%+ 7% ▲ 4 2¢ 15¢ $6.67 $469
Republican 20-30% 5% ▲ 3 1¢ 10¢ $10.00 $406
Republican 55-60% 3% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 $532
Republican 0-20% 1% 0¢ 2¢ $45.45 $312
Democrat Wins 1% 0¢ 1¢ $500

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OK- House Election Margin of Victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions