Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party9%
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NY-08 House Election Margin of Victory
The odds
29%Democrat 55-60%
- Democrat 55-60%29%
- Democrat 60-65%19%▼ 1
- Democrat 50-55%17%▼ 2
- Democrat 45-50%15%▼ 1
- Democrat 30-40%7%▲ 1
- Democrat 70%+5%▲ 1
- Democrat 0-30%4%
- Democrat 65-70%4%
- Democrat 40-45%4%
- Republican Wins<1%
How the odds have moved
Democrat 55-60%: 29% on Oct 20, 29% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat 55-60% | 29% | 29¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $2.4K | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 19% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | $6.3K |
| Democrat 50-55% | 17% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 21¢ | $4.72 | $3.2K |
| Democrat 45-50% | 15% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.21 | $742 |
| Democrat 30-40% | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | $2.6K |
| Democrat 70%+ | 5% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.35 | $584 |
| Democrat 0-30% | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | $465 | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | $437 | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 4% | 0¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | $153 | |
| Republican Wins | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $627 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House Election Margin of Victory
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
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