Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
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How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
The odds
31%≤46 and ≤192
- ≤46 and ≤19231%▼ 1
- 47–49 and 193–20727%▼ 5
- 47–49 and ≤19215%▲ 8
- 50–52 and 193–2079%▼ 1
- ≤46 and 193–2079%
- 47–49 and ≥2084%
- 50–52 and 208–2224%▼ 1
- ≥53 and 208–2223%
- ≥53 and ≤2072%
- ≥53 and ≥2231%
- ≤46 and ≥2081%
- 50–52 and ≤1921%
1 more
- 50–52 and ≥223<1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
≤46 and ≤192: 27% on Oct 20, 31% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤46 and ≤192 | 31% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 31¢ | $3.22 | $15.7K |
| 47–49 and 193–207 | 27% | ▼ 5 | 27¢ | 32¢ | $3.12 | $9.9K |
| 47–49 and ≤192 | 15% | ▲ 8 | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.88 | $10.1K |
| 50–52 and 193–207 | 9% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.47 | $11.5K |
| ≤46 and 193–207 | 9% | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.62 | $5.8K | |
| 47–49 and ≥208 | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.76 | $6K | |
| 50–52 and 208–222 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $10.4K |
| ≥53 and 208–222 | 3% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | $5.9K | |
| ≥53 and ≤207 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $3.5K | |
| ≥53 and ≥223 | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $4K | |
| ≤46 and ≥208 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | $3K | |
| 50–52 and ≤192 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $4.8K | |
| 50–52 and ≥223 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $3.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate and House
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Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?Vice-president’s visibility has risen as Trump’s popularity wanes, but path to inherit Maga throne is more complicated than it may seem A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he runs for president, the… -
US Midterm Elections: Trump To Rally In Michigan For Mike RogersUS President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, to support Republican candidate Mike Rogers ahead of the US midterm elections Trump and Obama campaign for rival candidates in Michigan. The Senate race could… - Amid inter-chamber dispute, Healey urges lawmakers to reconvene, vote on what senator dubs ‘colonoscopy of climate policy’ - The Boston GlobeIt’s not just billions for economic development. Governor Maura Healey is urging Massachusetts lawmakers to return to the State House to pass reforms to the state’s siting and permitting process, a policy a Senate leader called “the…
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This decade has been missing its big-impact midtermNew speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds the gavel during the opening session of the 116th Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2019. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption… -
MAGA Inc. has spent $277 million on the midterms; Here’s where the money has goneA late ad blitz targets key Senate and House battlegrounds across the country as Election Day nears. President Trump’s flagship super PAC has spent nearly $277 million since the start of September, ramping up spending to help Republicans… -
Oak Park groups for, against Israel referendum make their casePart of NEWSWELL Chicago, covering Oak Park and River Forest. The advisory referendum question is simply put, yet packs emotion on a global scale for many in the village of Oak Park. Should the state of Illinois repeal laws that ban state… -
There Was Only One Way the Democrats Could Blow the Midterms — and Lord Help ‘Em, They’re Doing It!Forget about packing the Supreme Court, banning ICE, or impeaching the president (again): Should they win congress, the Democrats’ shrewdest move would be moving Election Day to September. ‘Cause if elections were held in September, the… -
Are Democrats Setting Up Their Base for Disappointment?Rising inflation, tariffs, and anti-incumbent backlash are shaking up traditional party strongholds across key Senate and House battlegrounds ahead of the midterm elections. While many believe the cycle favors Democrats this year… -
Column: Fictional post-election Trump/Welker interviewPost election, Trump will feel like he has total freedom to do whatever he wishes, with no restrictions. Here is a theoretical exchange that will take place between himself and Kristen Welker of “Meet the Press” in late November after the… -
'Josie: A True Story of Race, Rescue and Resilience' Will Inspire You, Encourage You, and MoreIf all you want to read these days is about how the Democrats' irresistible Blue Wave is going to roll over all Republican opposition on November 3 and then plunge America into its final descent into historical curiosity, then this column… -
Editorial: It’s time to flip CongressPresident Donald J. Trump has been imploring Republican voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” in the midterm elections. There’s no need, really, to pretend. This election, particularly for seats in the U.S. Senate and the House of… -
From Michigan to Texas: Key races to watch in US midterm elections 2026Sat, Oct 24, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 12, 1448 | Fajr 05:04|DXB 30°C Americans vote on November 3 in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump's Republicans retain control of Congress or spend the final two years of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions