Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
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IN-03 House Election Winner
The odds
95%Marlin Stutzman (R)
- Marlin Stutzman (R)95%
- Kelly Thompson (D)5%
How the odds have moved
Marlin Stutzman (R): 95% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlin Stutzman (R) | 95% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | $4.9K | |
| Kelly Thompson (D) | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $42.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IN- House
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Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city… -
Intel chiefs stand by defense of Signal chat at House hearing after new texts emergeUpdated on: March 26, 2025 / 1:56 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe defended their participation in a group chat on the encrypted messaging app Signal that… -
Battleground Map Widens as House Races Flash Warning SignsControl of Congress is again tilting toward a handful of fiercely contested districts, but this cycle’s battlefield looks broader and more volatile than usual. What had once been a narrow map is stretching into more states and more… -
Top Republican in the House Opposes Bill Authorizing Jan. 6th CommissionHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the bipartisan bill creating a commission to study the January 6th riot at the U.S. Capitol. But McCarthy had some pointed objections to the bill. Recommended: Pelosi’s Latest… -
Russian drones damage energy facility, outpatient clinic and house in Zhytomyr OblastДолучайтеся до клубу УП! Russian drones attacked Zhytomyr Oblast on the night of 24-25 October, damaging an energy infrastructure facility, an outpatient clinic, a house and a business. No casualties were reported. Details: Damage was… -
Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play outJavier Zarracina is an award-winning senior data and graphics editor for NBC News, where he creates maps, interactives and data visualizations across topics including politics, business, science, health and breaking news. Who will win… -
California lawmakers discuss redistricting's impact on HouseEditor's note: This is part of a series on the June 2 primary election in California. As the Golden State’s voters prepare for the June 2 primary election, California’s legislators spoke with The Center Square about whether the state’s… -
How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a waveDemocrats must compete deeper in territory Trump won in 2024 to make big gains in this year’s midterms, but the political environment is on their side. In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with… -
A story about observing the dissolution of the House of Representatives.Although some time has passed, I went to observe the moment the House of Representatives was dissolved on January 23rd, marking the start of a general election. I felt it would be a waste not to share my experience, especially since I even… -
Kalispell Candidates Pitch Property Tax Fixes and Affordability in House District 7Republican Rep. Courtenay Sprunger, the incumbent, and Democrat Madison Evans discuss property taxes, housing and working across the aisle Rep. Courtenay Sprunger and Madison Evans both want to represent the heart of Kalispell in House… -
First day of early voting brings hundreds to Susan B. Anthony Museum and HouseROCHESTER, N.Y. — The first day of early voting for the November general election ended on Saturday at the Susan B. Anthony Museum and House. News10NBC’s Declan Stablow reported seeing hundreds of people lining up to cast their ballots…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions