Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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CA-04 House Election Winner
The odds
99%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party99%
- Republican Party<1%
How the odds have moved
Democratic Party: 97% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | $39K | ||
| Republican Party | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $13K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Democratic Party, Republican Party
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Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to the leftSaginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discusses leaving the Democratic Party and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to… -
OC Republican Party pounces on mailer it calls ‘racially degrading’A political mailer depicting Republican candidate Gracey Van Der Mark as a sticker logo on a cluster of bananas is receiving harsh criticism from the Orange County Republican Party. In social media posts on Thursday, Oct. 22, the OC GOP… -
Peltola, Democratic Party move to intervene in DOJ election lawsuitThe U.S. Senate campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola is among those asking a federal judge to dismiss a Department of Justice lawsuit that seeks to block election results if she wins. The lawsuit, which President Donald Trump said he… -
Lubbock County Republican Party chairman releases statement ahead of President Trump’s visitLUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Statement from Chairman Ken Adams Regarding President Donald J. Trump’s Visit to Lubbock, Texas “The Lubbock County Republican Party is honored to welcome President Donald J. Trump to Lubbock on Tuesday, October 27… -
Francis Suarez: Hispanic voters are shifting away from the Democratic PartyFormer Miami Mayor Francis Suarez discusses the shifting political alignment of Hispanic voters and President Donald Trump's upcoming Florida rally. Suarez highlights key issues driving voters toward the GOP ahead of the midterm elections… - Neil Bush Backs Texas Democrat James Talarico, Citing Damage Done To Republican PartyBy David Prior | Oct 24, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics Neil Bush, son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush, has publicly endorsed Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico…
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GALLERY – Former Vice President Kamala D. Harris visited Columbus, Mississippi, to headline a get-out-the-vote rally in support of Democratic Party senatorial nominee Scott Colom ahead of the Nov. 3rd electionFor Black Mississippians and the broader African American community. The Jackson Advocate is Mississippi's oldest Black-owned newspaper that educates, informs, celebrates, and empowers by focusing on issues and achievements that matter… - Democratic Party Protests Acquittal, Relieved to Avoid By-ElectionParty leaders criticize court ruling while acknowledging reduced pressure from potential Seoul mayoral election
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Rahm Emanuel pleads for the Democratic Party to welcome more 'McCain-Romney Republicans'Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel pressed Democrats to include moderate Republicans in their coalition. (Getty Images) Former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel encouraged the Democratic Party to appeal to moderate… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Whither My Democratic Party?Friday, October 23rd | 12 Heshvan 5787 In the current political environment, I’m struggling with an extreme case of what psychologists call “cognitive dissonance.” Put simply, half of me is praying for a Democratic takeover of the House… - Ro Khanna takes Aim at Schumer over Democratic Party’s directionDiya TV America's Largest Asian American, South Asian & Indian American TV Network, Broadcasting to more than 85 Million People Ro Khanna takes Aim at Schumer over Democratic Party’s direction You might also like
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions