Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
81%3-6 hours
- 3-6 hours81%▲ 8
- 6-12 hours19%▼ 5
- 12+ hours<1%▼ 1
Install
GitHub.com critical incident by...?
The odds
76%October 23
- October 2376%▲ 25
How the odds have moved
October 23: 55% on Oct 19, 76% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 5 PM ETOctober 23: 99% → 76%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 | <1% | ▼ 50 | 0¢ | $290 | ||
| October 23 | 76% | ▲ 25 | 52¢ | 100¢ | $943 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: GitHub.com
Search ›-
Hey I am looking for contributors for my hobby OS called NoovexOS. I think i would need mor ehelp with it and here is the website noovexos.site or github repo github.com/xAxel12N/No...... Tagged with github, opensource, programming, sideprojects. Templates let you quickly answer FAQs or store snippets for re-use. Are you sure you want to hide this comment? It will become hidden in your post, but will still be visible…
Related markets
All big tech ›Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
93%Denver, CO
- Denver, CO93%▼ 2
- Las Vegas, NV91%
- Detroit, MI18%▲ 7
16 more
- Sacramento, CA14%▲ 1
- Charlotte, NC8%
- New Orleans, LA7%
- London, UK6%
- Portland, OR6%
- Baltimore, MD6%
- Chicago, IL6%
- Philadelphia, PA6%
- New York, NY5%
- Washington, DC4%
- Seattle, WA4%
- Boston, MA4%
- Minneapolis, MN4%
- Pittsburgh, PA4%
- St. Louis, MO4%
- Tokyo, Japan4%
#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?
55%Dolly Parton
- Dolly Parton55%▲ 1
- Hayden Panettiere24%▲ 3
- Oliver Tree8%
22 more
- Renée Good4%
- Chuck Norris4%▲ 2
- Alex Pretti1%
- Ali Khamenei1%
- Lindsey Graham1%
- James Van Der Beek<1%
- Jesse Jackson<1%
- Nicholas Brendon<1%
- Kyle Busch<1%
- Catherine O'Hara<1%
- Robert Duvall<1%
- Eric Dane<1%
- Ted Turner<1%
- Bob Weir<1%
- Valentino Garavani<1%
- Clive Davis<1%
- Sam Neill<1%
- Bonnie Tyler<1%
- David Hockney<1%
- Alan Greenspan<1%
- Scott Adams<1%
- Victor Willis<1%
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? (Before 2030)
61%chance
Tesla Optimus released this year? (Before 2027)
6%chance▼ 1
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?
18%October 31
- October 3118%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.