Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
75%3-6 hours
- 3-6 hours75%▼ 11
- 6-12 hours22%▲ 9
- 12+ hours1%▲ 1
Install
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? (Before 2030)
The odds
63%chance▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 61% on Oct 20, 63% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | ▲ 2 | 61¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 96.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: SpaceX, Blue Origin
Search ›- NASA, Blue Origin and SpaceX Accelerate Lander Development for 2028 Moon MissionsNASA and commercial human-landing-system providers Blue Origin and SpaceX have streamlined designs and revised their concepts. Home » Home » NASA, Blue Origin and SpaceX Accelerate Lander Development for 2028 Moon Missions By NASA //…
- When will SpaceX and Blue Origin fly to the moon? NASA reveals lunar lander timelines (and an Artemis III update)If NASA's timeline holds, there are going to be some exciting launches over the next 12 months. NASA has revealed new details about its plans to return astronauts to the surface of the moon, outlining a series of upcoming milestones for…
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Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin will face off in orbit next year, NASA confirms. ‘As a rocket nerd, it’s going to be pretty awesome’NASA is moving fast on its plans to build a moon base and return astronauts to the lunar surface in as little as two years. Administrator Jared Isaacman said Friday that the space agency is still on track to launch Artemis III next summer… -
Artemis 3 Launch Date: NASA Targets Summer 2027 for Astronaut Mission as Moon Landing Plan Changes; Check Expected Launch Timeline, Crew Details, Mission Objectives, SpaceX & Blue Origin Lunar LanderThe mission’s schedule and objectives are important milestones in NASA’s broader Artemis programme, which aims to establish a sustained human presence on and around the Moon and support future deep-space exploration. NASA has targeted… -
NASA’s Moon Landing Plans Just Took a Major Turn, and SpaceX and Blue Origin Face a Race Against TimeNASA's revised Artemis schedule puts SpaceX and Blue Origin on a tight path toward the first crewed lunar landing in more than 50 years. NASA has outlined an ambitious new timeline for SpaceX and Blue Origin to demonstrate their lunar… -
NASA shares moon lander timelines for SpaceX and Blue Origin ahead of Artemis III and IVSince NASA has published an updated timeline for the HLS landers, I decided to present it as a tree-like timeline, showing what must come before each subsequent step. It’s a good visualization of the remaining steps needed to get these… - Blue Origin Works Towards Bringing New Glenn Back Online This Year - Weekly Spaceflight News [9:23]Chapter 1: Industry Update Introduction Falcon 9 got another four launches under its belt this week, while Blue Origin looks to ramp up its own launch rate with New Glenn. Meanwhile, Rocket Labs Neutron faces delays due to problems with…
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Jeff Bezos is playing the long game with Blue Origin (op-ed)Daniel Biedermann is a Partner at NewSpace Capital, a private equity firm investing in high-growth space companies. He has more than 30 years' experience in the space industry and was previously SVP of Corporate Strategy at SES, where he… - NASA unveils SpaceX and Blue Origin module test schedule for Artemis — Space.comNASA unveiled a schedule for preparing SpaceX and Blue Origin lunar landers for the Artemis program at the International Astronautical Congress in Antalya, Turkey. The Artemis III mission is planned for the third quarter of 2027: four…
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The Biggest Blue Origin Investment Opportunity May Not Be Blue OriginFor more than 25 years, Jeff Bezos has used his personal fortune to turn Blue Origin into one of the world's most ambitious space companies. He has invested billions in rockets, spacecraft and the tec The Biggest Blue Origin Investment… -
NASA says Artemis program adjustments improve shot at 2028 moon landingUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:05 PM EDT / CBS News NASA is pressing ahead with Artemis moon program revisions to give the agency its best shot at a lunar landing in 2028 using a lander built by either Elon Musk's SpaceX or Jeff Bezos'… - Blue Origin Florida Infrastructure Investment Tops $3 Billion Ahead of High-Cadence New Glenn OperationsOn Friday, October 16, 2026, aerospace manufacturer Blue Origin announced that its cumulative capital investment in Florida launch, processing, and assembly infrastructure has exceeded $3 billion. Strategic Expansion Across Texas and…
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16 more
- Detroit, MI11%▼ 1
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10%chance▲ 4
Where will Waymo operate before 2028?
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- Tokyo, Japan43%▼ 1
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- Alex Pretti1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.