Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 27, 9 AM ETFalls to $36: 24% → 17%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 24, 11 PM ETFalls to $36: 27% → 5%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ ↑ $52
>99%
▲ 22
100¢
100¢
$528
↑ $56
>99%
▲ 73
100¢
100¢
$2.7K
↑ $60
16%
▲ 1
7¢
24¢
$4.17
$3.7K
↑ $64
7%
5¢
8¢
$12.20
$1.2K
✓ ↑ $68
>99%
100¢
100¢
$110
↑ $68
5%
1¢
9¢
$11.49
$1.2K
✓ ↑ $72
>99%
100¢
100¢
$75
✓ ↑ $72
>99%
100¢
100¢
$443
↑ $72
3%
0¢
5¢
$18.87
$1.2K
✓ ↑ $76
>99%
▲ 31
100¢
100¢
$1.7K
✓ ↑ $76
>99%
▲ 21
100¢
100¢
$439
↑ $76
1%
0¢
2¢
$47.62
$3.1K
↑ $80
1%
0¢
1¢
$3.4K
↑ $84
1%
▼ 1
0¢
3¢
$29.41
$2.8K
↑ $88
1%
1¢
$90.91
$2.9K
↑ $92
1%
0¢
0¢
$2.4K
↑ $96
1%
0¢
4¢
$25.00
$1K
↑ $100
1%
0¢
3¢
$33.33
$430
↓ $28
1%
0¢
1¢
$100.00
$160
↓ $32
17%
0¢
100¢
↓ $36
17%
1¢
6¢
$15.63
$124
↓ $40
17%
▼ 1
1¢
16¢
$6.25
$43
↓ $44
17%
▼ 2
3¢
9¢
$11.36
$842
↓ $48
51%
▲ 15
4¢
99¢
$1.01
$2K
✓ ↓ $52
>99%
▲ 79
100¢
100¢
$11.8K
✓ ↓ $52
>99%
100¢
100¢
$369
✓ ↓ $52
>99%
100¢
100¢
$10
✓ ↓ $56
>99%
▲ 61
100¢
100¢
$2.2K
✓ ↓ $60
>99%
▲ 38
100¢
100¢
$2.5K
✓ ↓ $64
>99%
▲ 23
100¢
100¢
$2.1K
✓ ↓ $64
>99%
100¢
100¢
$20
✓ ↓ $68
>99%
▲ 21
100¢
100¢
$1.8K
✓ ↓ $68
>99%
▲ 5
100¢
100¢
$286
✓ ↓ $72
>99%
▲ 19
100¢
100¢
$1.9K
✓ ↓ $72
>99%
▲ 16
100¢
100¢
$381
✓ ↓ $72
>99%
100¢
100¢
$483
✓ ↓ $72
>99%
100¢
100¢
$523
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Why Has RKLB Stock Outperformed?Forbes · 24 h agoAccording to Trefis analysis of Aerospace & Defense peers through October 2026, Rocket Lab (RKLB) outperformed 44 of its 51 peers. A margin that large can stem either from a strong industry or from what the launch and space systems company…
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Intuitive Machines Just Dropped 30% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell?24/7 Wall St. · 19 h agoIntuitive Machines stock has cratered while the broader space sector barely flinched, and the reasons behind that gap reveal a company walking a very fine line between a transformational growth story and a concentration risk that could…
Promising Defense Stocks To Follow Now – October 26thMarkets Daily · 22 h agoLockheed Martin, Boeing, GE Aerospace, Howmet Aerospace, and Rocket Lab are the five Defense stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat’s stock screener tool. Defense stocks are shares of companies that develop, manufacture, or supply…
UFO: 15% SpaceX, 85% Of What SpaceX Is DrainingSeeking Alpha · 24 h agoSpaceX (~15% of UFO) offers a compelling path to $200, translating to 5-6% potential ETF return, but cannot offset persistent underperformance elsewhere. Rotation into SpaceX is real, yet most other ... - The Procure Space ETF (UFO) is…
Solideon: From 3D-Printed Rocket Engines to Robot FactoriesEntrepreneur · 18 h agoOluseun Taiwon founded his company with defense in mind. “I understood the power that venture could have if you have a founder who has a really big dream and vision,” Taiwo says. “It really blows up the direction and opportunity.” Rocket…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions