Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.29%median
42%66%
Median 50.29%Middle half 47.15% – 53.4%
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Harris County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
The odds
60.83%median
52%70%
Median 60.83%Middle half 58.91% – 62.81%
How the odds have moved
Median: 59.66% on Oct 19, 60.83% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 54% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 56% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 125 |
| At least 58% | 86% | ▲ 1 | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | |
| At least 60% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 12.00 |
| At least 61% | 48% | ▲ 1 | 43¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | |
| At least 62% | 34% | ▲ 1 | 29¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 1.9K |
| At least 64% | 13% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | |
| At least 66% | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 675 | |
| At least 68% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Harris County, James Talarico, Texas
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston, TexasDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico holds a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in Galveston, Texas, to mobilize voters ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds rally in Galveston… -
WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TXDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico speaks with voters during a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour meet-and-greet in Temple, Texas. WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TX Democratic U.S… -
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in TexasOct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT A major donor to Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has announced his support for Democratic opponent James Talarico in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas. “I'm Thomas J. Henry. I'm here to… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
James Talarico digs in with Black voters in pursuit of an elusive Democratic win in TexasWhile Democrats don’t know exactly what a winning Texas coalition looks like, since it’s been 30-plus years since they assembled one, it’s clear that Black voters are critical for Senate candidate James Talarico, whose contest with state… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign event in Fort BendTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign event in Fort Bend as part of his statewide tour ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign… -
James Talarico fires back at Elon Musk in Texas Senate race feudJames Talarico, the Democratic nominee seeking a Senate seat from Texas, fired back Wednesday night at Elon Musk for an X post in which the world's richest man hours earlier had said, "There is something deeply wrong with Talarico." "There… -
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceFrom left: Neil Bush, George W Bush, and George HW Bush Two members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions