Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.12%median
42%66%
Median 50.12%Middle half 46.96% – 53.24%
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Washtenaw County, Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent
The odds
73.62%median
66%80%
Median 73.62%
How the odds have moved
Median: 72.6% on Oct 20, 73.62% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 68% | 88% | ▼ 5 | 58¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 1.4K |
| At least 70% | 84% | ▲ 2 | 58¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 324 |
| At least 72% | 58% | ▼ 3 | 59¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 791 |
| At least 73% | 56% | ▲ 11 | 57¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 248 |
| At least 74% | 46% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 370 |
| At least 76% | 46% | ▲ 3 | 15¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 251 |
| At least 78% | 46% | ▲ 93 | 2¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 220 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Washtenaw County, Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan
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Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan rallyDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed tells reporters on eve of president's rally that Trump will praise tariffs, Iran war and 'big ugly bill' during Michigan visit. Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan… -
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visitFox News Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visit Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed tells Fox News Digital that former President Barack Obama reminds voters of a president… -
Obama seeks to shore up Abdul El-Sayed with Black voters at Michigan rallyFormer President Barack Obama rallied for Michigan’s Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit on Saturday as the bitterly fought contest could come down to the city’s substantial Black vote. “We’re clear about the choice in this… -
Barack Obama to rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan ahead of key US Senate race – US politics liveThe former Democratic president is showing major support in Detroit for the progressive Michigan candidate in final days before US midterm elections Hundreds of Michiganders have gathered outside Cass Technical High School in Detroit… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in DetroitFormer President Barack Obama joins Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson at a campaign rally in Detroit. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in Detroit Former President Barack Obama… -
"We're all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-SayedCNN ‘We’re all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed CNN's Jessica Dean speaks to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin about the neck-and-neck Senate race in Michigan as… -
Abdul El-Sayed: I have never been a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and never will beMichigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed discusses the war in Iran, affordability concerns facing Michigan residents and his campaign ahead of the 2026 midterm elections on ‘Special Report.’ Abdul El-Sayed: I have never been… -
Abdul El-Sayed's Appeal to Black Voters Jumped on By ConservativesOct 23, 2026 at 11:48 AM EDT Several conservative accounts on X have criticized Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as "pandering" to Black voters after he was seen ordering fried chicken while discussing his efforts to… -
Abdul El-Sayed parlayed his race-obsessed medical research to fast-track, fund journey to Congress: criticsMichigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed turned his weird science into a stepping stone, exploiting identity politics in academia to fast-track and fund his journey to Congress, according to critics and a Post review of his… -
Trump Calls Abdul El-Sayed A ‘Vicious, Violent Jihadist’President Donald Trump attacked Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, calling him a ‘phony,’ a ‘liar,’ and a ‘vicious, violent jihadist,’ and... - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter… -
The Problem with Abdul El-Sayed’s JFK AnalogyWhat It Means to Lose a Pregnancy Thinking Outside the Books Misdiagnosing the Economy, from Left and Right How the Author of the Constitution Won, Eventually Trying to put some distance between himself and the jihadist Muslim Brotherhood… -
Scrutinizing Abdul El-Sayed’s Radicalism Isn’t IslamophobicWhat It Means to Lose a Pregnancy Thinking Outside the Books Misdiagnosing the Economy, from Left and Right How the Author of the Constitution Won, Eventually As the Michigan Senate race enters the home stretch and Democratic nominee Abdul…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions