Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.12%median
42%66%
Median 50.12%Middle half 46.96% – 53.24%
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Dane County, Wisconsin: David Crowley vote percent
The odds
77.81%median
70%92%
Median 77.81%Middle half 75.6% – 80.12%
How the odds have moved
Median: 77.82% on Oct 20, 77.81% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 72% | 94% | ▼ 2 | 91¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 241 |
| At least 74% | 87% | ▼ 1 | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 789 |
| At least 76% | 72% | ▲ 1 | 67¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 3.5K |
| At least 77% | 61% | ▲ 1 | 56¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | |
| At least 78% | 48% | ▼ 2 | 44¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 11.00 |
| At least 79% | 34% | 32¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 52.00 | |
| At least 80% | 26% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 106 |
| At least 82% | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 11.00 | |
| At least 84% | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 19.00 | |
| At least 86% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 591 | |
| At least 88% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 90% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Dane County, David Crowley, Wisconsin
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WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris hosts a "Women for Crowley" event with David CrowleyHarris speaks in Milwaukee, WI in support of Democrat David Crowley's campaign for governor WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris hosts a "Women for Crowley" event with David Crowley Harris speaks in Milwaukee, WI in support of Democrat David… -
Who is David Crowley? 5 things to know about the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate2026 Wisconsin Voter Guide | Early Voting | Gubernatorial Debate | AG Debate Democratic nominee David Crowley is seeking to become Wisconsin’s next governor, facing Republican candidate Tom Tiffany in the Nov. 3 election. Crowley is… -
David Crowley, Wisconsin Democrats Make Stop In Sheboygan as Campaign Trail Nears its EndWith nearly just a week left before Election Day, Wisconsin Democrats made a stop in Sheboygan along the campaign trail. This weekend, Gubernatorial candidate David Crowley, his running mate for Lieutenant Governor, Sarah Godlewski… -
David Crowley's Campaign Received a Massive Donation From Major Epstein AssociateEarlier today, we told you about the billionaires and millionaires backing Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley's gubernatorial campaign. Crowley has attacked his Republican opponent, Tom Tiffany, over wealthy donors while raking in… -
Former VP Kamala Harris campaigns for David Crowley in MilwaukeeFormer Vice President Kamala Harris joined Democratic candidate for governor David Crowley to rally a crowd of about 450 supporters on Oct. 26 at the Pfister Hotel in downtown Milwaukee. "This is an extraordinary state that means so much… -
Kamala Harris visits Milwaukee to campaign for David Crowley ahead of midtermsFormer Vice President Kamala Harris visited Milwaukee on Monday to campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. If elected, Crowley would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor. He has been Milwaukee County’s executive since… -
David Crowley campaign rally; VP Kamala Harris speaksVice President Kamala Harris spoke at a campaign rally for David Crowley, Democratic candidate for Wisconsin governor, on Monday, Oct. 26. The DOJ took steps to charge James Comey with leaking information earlier this month, in its third… -
David Crowley Attacked the Donors Supporting Tom Tiffany. Here Are Crowley's Wealthy Backers.David Crowley's campaign has attacked the three wealthy donors who have contributed to Tom Tiffany's gubernatorial campaign. The claims are that Tiffany is being bought by billionaires, but that's just not true. And now we're learning that… -
Kamala Harris stumps for David Crowley in final week of governor’s raceSeveral high-profile surrogates have descended on Wisconsin in recent days Former Vice President Kamala Harris made a brief return to Wisconsin Monday, campaigning in Milwaukee for David Crowley, the Democratic candidate for governor. In a… -
Pay To Not Play? Wisconsin’s David Crowley Cut A Lucrative Deal To Drop Out Of Gov Race, Insider AllegesAs the Dem establishment plotted to stop socialists from winning its primary, David Crowley left race in exchange for cash injection to his campaign. Wisconsin’s Democrat primary for governor was even messier than was known to the public… -
Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley stops at UAW Hall 90 on campaign trailMilwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the Democratic candidate for Wisconsin governor, made a campaign stop at the UAW Hall 95 in Janesville Friday expressing concerns over affordability and gas prices. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock… -
Did a Milwaukee County health insurance contract lapse under David Crowley’s administration?Wisconsin Watch partners with Gigafact to produce Fact Briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. Read our methodology to learn how we check claims. A health insurance contract covering Milwaukee County employees lapsed in…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions