Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.12%median
42%66%
Median 50.12%Middle half 46.96% – 53.24%
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Pima County, Arizona: Katie Hobbs vote percent
The odds
63.17%median
56%78%
Median 63.17%Middle half 60.9% – 65.4%
How the odds have moved
Median: 63.44% on Oct 19, 63.17% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 58% | 96% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 510 |
| At least 60% | 84% | ▼ 1 | 79¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | |
| At least 62% | 64% | ▼ 1 | 59¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | |
| At least 64% | 40% | ▼ 1 | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 1.1K |
| At least 66% | 19% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 374 |
| At least 68% | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 364 | |
| At least 70% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| At least 72% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 74% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 76% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pima County, Katie Hobbs, Arizona
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Katie Hobbs Leads for Arizona GovernorA new Red Box Research (D) poll in Arizona finds Katie Hobbs (D) leading Andy Biggs (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 42%. Arizona Governor’s Race Katie Hobbs (D) 47% Andy Biggs (R) 42% Red Box Research poll · likely voters · ±3.7% A new… -
Katie Hobbs Invests $16 Million to Fight HomelessnessGovernor Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has announced a $16 million investment to fight homelessness in Arizona. The money, drawn from the State Housing Trust Fund, will go to various civic organizations and charities that shelter and help the… -
Katie Hobbs Allies Caught Encouraging Noncitizens and Felons to Vote [WATCH]Undercover video released by Muckraker is raising new questions about voter registration practices in Arizona after canvassers aligned with Gov. Katie Hobbs were recorded discussing immigration status, convicted felons, and voter… - Watch: Pro-Katie Hobbs Canvassers Are Willing to Let Noncitizens, Felons VoteUndercover video captured canvassers aligned with Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-Ariz.) saying they don’t believe in asking about immigration status or actively encouraging self-identified noncitizens and felons to register and vote. All of that, of…
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MUST WATCH: Katie Hobbs Canvassers Busted by Muckraker Trying to Register Felons and Noncitizens to Vote – Hobbs RUNS When Confronted!Muckraker on Thursday published an election report out of Arizona, using undercover reporters to catch the Democratic Party, nonprofit groups, and labor unions backing Incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, attempting to illegally register… -
New York’s Kathy Hochul ranked worst governor in US as part of scathing new studyGov. Kathy Hochul was ranked the worst state leader in the US for protecting constituents’ freedoms, a scathing new study found. Hochul ranked No. 50 in the Cato’s Institute’s 2026 “Freedom in the 50 States” list, scoring an “F” and… -
Arizona judicial retention efforts take on partisan tingePartisan voter guides from all sides of the political spectrum are airing long lists of judges allegedly unfit to keep on the court. But those campaigns to remove sitting judges are gambling on the outcome of the governor's race this… -
Charlie Kirk’s Arizona Dream Risks Unraveling Under Erika’s LeadershipTurning Point USA has made Arizona the proving ground for Charlie Kirk’s political legacy, but defeating Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is proving difficult. His widow, Erika, has committed the organization to the fight, backed by… -
Arizona accommodated gaming megadonor while cracking down on its rivalsArizona’s top Democrats have delayed for two years in enforcing legal action against an online gaming giant that has supported them politically. But regulators acted swiftly to crack down on the company’s rivals. Gov. Katie Hobbs and… -
Katie Hobbs says she won’t debate Andy Biggs, opting instead to tour the stateFor the second election cycle in a row, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is refusing to debate her Republican opponent. Hobbs narrowly won the governor’s seat by about 17,000 votes in 2022 after she declined to share a debate stage with Republican… - How a Democratic wave year could change Arizona politicsThe midterm election could change the direction of the state as Arizona Democrats again hope to win control of the statehouse for the first time in decades. Polling suggests Democrats have an advantage, as the national economy and…
- The feds have $5 billion to spend on Border Patrol facilities. Here’s what they might build in Arizona.With billions of dollars in its budget, the Department of Homeland Security is now eyeing three potential new Border Patrol stations across Arizona, according to an online database that catalogs upcoming federal contracting opportunities…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions