Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
50.12%median
42%66%
Median 50.12%Middle half 46.96% – 53.24%
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Maricopa County, Arizona: Katie Hobbs vote percent
The odds
53.4%median
46%68%
Median 53.4%Middle half 50.89% – 56%
How the odds have moved
Median: 55.01% on Oct 20, 53.4% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 48% | 93% | ▼ 1 | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 654 |
| At least 50% | 83% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 1.3K |
| At least 52% | 65% | ▼ 1 | 60¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 253 |
| At least 54% | 44% | ▼ 1 | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 2.0K |
| At least 56% | 25% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | |
| At least 58% | 11% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | |
| At least 60% | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| At least 62% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 64% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 66% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Maricopa County, Katie Hobbs, Arizona
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MUST WATCH: Katie Hobbs Canvassers Busted by Muckraker Trying to Register Felons and Noncitizens to Vote – Hobbs RUNS When Confronted!Muckraker on Thursday published an election report out of Arizona, using undercover reporters to catch the Democratic Party, nonprofit groups, and labor unions backing Incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, attempting to illegally register… -
Maricopa County recorder restores 25 voters wrongly flagged as noncitizens, ending lawsuitArizona’s top election official and attorney general have dropped their lawsuit asking a judge to force Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap to reinstate the voting rights of 25 people who were falsely flagged as noncitizens by a federal… -
Katie Hobbs Allies Caught Encouraging Noncitizens and Felons to Vote [WATCH]Undercover video released by Muckraker is raising new questions about voter registration practices in Arizona after canvassers aligned with Gov. Katie Hobbs were recorded discussing immigration status, convicted felons, and voter… -
Mayes, Heap appear close to deal to restore voting for citizens blocked by Maricopa County recorderState officials and Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap appear prepared to settle their legal dispute over two dozen U.S. citizens blocked from voting by the Recorder’s Office. The voters in question were part of a group of 60 suspected… -
Arizona demands Maricopa County restore citizens’ voting registrationsto see more of our voting rights news coverage when you search. Arizona’s attorney general sued Maricopa County to restore 25 voters’ registrations after they were falsely flagged as noncitizens. The lawsuit, filed Thursday, comes eight… - Watch: Pro-Katie Hobbs Canvassers Are Willing to Let Noncitizens, Felons VoteUndercover video captured canvassers aligned with Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-Ariz.) saying they don’t believe in asking about immigration status or actively encouraging self-identified noncitizens and felons to register and vote. All of that, of…
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Arizona officials sue Maricopa County recorder to restore voting access for 25 U.S. citizensArizona’s attorney general and top election official want a judge to force Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap to restore voting rights to 25 U.S. citizens he flagged using an unreliable citizenship verification database backed by the… -
ASU student, former GOP lawmaker compete in Maricopa County Superior Court clerk's raceA 19-year-old ASU student is running against a former Republican state lawmaker to head the clerk’s office at Maricopa County Superior Court. Both candidates say they want to keep the office running smoothly. The clerk manages all court… -
Misinformation targets Maricopa County ahead of 2026 midtermsMaricopa County in the US state of Arizona is home to one of the country's largest voting populations and has been at the center of false election fraud narratives for years. Ahead of the November 2026 midterms, the jurisdiction is again… - Recorder restores rights for two dozen voters in Maricopa CountyMaricopa County Recorder Justin Heap reinstated the voting rights of two dozen people after Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes sued him ahead of the November midterm election. "After successful mediation…
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Lawsuit: Maricopa County hasn’t reinstated 25 voters mistakenly flagged in citizenship checkArizona Attorney General Kris Mayes sued the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office on Wednesday over its handling of the registration statuses of a group of voters falsely flagged as noncitizens by an error-prone federal data tool earlier this… -
JUST IN: Republicans Win Huge Maricopa County Early-Ballot Drop — Here’s What the Numbers Really ShowRepublicans just won a huge early-ballot return batch in Maricopa County, Arizona—and the numbers are exactly the kind of signal the GOP wants to see heading into Election Day. The batch contained 76,806 returned ballots. Registered…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions