Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
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How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
8.03median
5.5011.5
Median 8.03Middle half 7.20 – 8.80
How the odds have moved
Median: 7.79 on Oct 20, 8.03 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 6 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 15.8K | ||
| 6 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $10.75 | 18.8K |
| 7 | 24% | ▼ 1 | 23¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 32.0K |
| 8 | 34% | 34¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 25.6K | |
| 9 | 31% | 31¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 68.3K | |
| 10 | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | 77.1K |
| 11 | <1% | 0¢ | 11.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, Virginia
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Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
New poll shows Democrats have slight edge in House races; Trump and Obama take MichiganRecent CBS News polling ahead of the midterms shows Democrats have a slight edge to take the majority in the House of Representatives. This comes as President Trump and former President Barack Obama rally in battleground states. CBS News'… -
Democrat hoping to flip Nebraska House seat pushing for action on affordabilityCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrat hoping to… -
Democrats poised for significant House gains, Cook Political Report estimatesThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats in November — potentially giving them bigger majorities than the ones they won during blue waves in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. On… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… -
How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a waveDemocrats must compete deeper in territory Trump won in 2024 to make big gains in this year’s midterms, but the political environment is on their side. In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with… -
Map Shows Closest House Races as Cook Shifts 19 Seats Toward DemocratsOct 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 12:04 PM EDT No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday. The update brings six seats that were previously classified as… -
Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovationsFormer President Barack Obama mocked President Donald Trump's White House renovations during a campaign rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovations Former President Barack Obama mocked President Donald… -
Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip HouseElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber, and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries… -
Why Cook Political Report just shifted 19 more House races in Democrats' directionDana Bash is joined by Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report as the nonpartisan ratings outlet shifts 19 House races in Democrats' direction. She explains which races they moved and why - including which Republican incumbents are facing… -
Lula’s win is a blow for the Trump White HouseLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection could reshape geopolitics for years to come. Challenger Flávio Bolsonaro vowed to pursue closer ties with the Trump administration if elected and had looked set to confirm a regional conservative… -
White House official addresses inflation and tariff concernsNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett joins 'The Sunday Briefing' to discuss the impact of the administration's economic policies, inflation and tariffs. White House official addresses inflation and tariff concerns National…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions