US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.31%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.31%Middle half 2.79% – 3.91%
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USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026
The odds
58.76%median
56.5%60.5%
Median 58.76%Middle half 58.06% – 59.45%
How the odds have moved
Median: 58.76% on Oct 19, 58.76% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 57.0% | 94% | 89¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 57.5% | 88% | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| Above 58.0% | 77% | 72¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | ||
| Above 58.5% | 61% | 56¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | ||
| Above 59.0% | 40% | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 401 | |
| Above 59.5% | 24% | 19¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Above 60.0% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Swift
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.