US unemployment rate at year-end 2033
6.25%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 6.25%Middle half 4% – 8.5%
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US unemployment rate at year-end 2034
The odds
6.25%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 6.25%Middle half 4% – 8.5%
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.25% on Oct 19, 6.25% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| Above 3.5% | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| Above 4.0% | 75% | 70¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | ||
| Above 4.5% | 69% | 64¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | ||
| Above 5.0% | 64% | 59¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | ||
| Above 5.5% | 58% | 53¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | ||
| Above 6.0% | 53% | 48¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | ||
| Above 6.5% | 47% | 42¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | ||
| Above 7.0% | 42% | 37¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | ||
| Above 7.5% | 36% | 31¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | ||
| Above 8.0% | 31% | 26¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | ||
| Above 8.5% | 25% | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| Above 9.0% | 20% | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | ||
| Above 9.5% | 14% | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Above 10.0% | 9% | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
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Ex-Medford teacher was accused of having sex with a student at a previous job: reportMedford Public Schools hired a teacher who was accused of having sex with a student while working in Florida nearly a decade ago, according to a report by the Boston Globe. School officials say they missed the red flag because he changed… -
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Surprise drop in UK unemployment to 4.7%ONS data shows rate down from 4.9% but number of job vacancies continues to shrink Business live – news updates Unemployment in the UK fell unexpectedly in the three months to August, to 4.7% from 4.9%. The Office for National Statistics… - Trump wanted Maria Bartiromo over Katie Zacharia for White House press secretary job: ReportWASHINGTON, DC: Former Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo was reportedly President Donald Trump’s preferred choice to take over the White House press secretary’s podium before Katie Zacharia landed the position, only to leave it five days…
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MLB payrolls 2026: AL finalist Cleveland Guardians have lowest in baseballOne of the three teams left standing in the 2026 Major League Baseball season, the Cleveland Guardians have the game's smallest payroll at $74.2 million. Ranking 30th out of MLB's 30 teams in payroll, the Guardians are in the postseason… -
Former Illinois subcontractor charged in $4.7 million COVID-19 unemployment benefits fraud schemeOctober 19, 2026 / 1:57 PM CDT / CBS Chicago A former state of Illinois subcontractor has been charged with orchestrating a fraud scheme to obtain $4.7 million in unemployment benefits for herself and hundreds of other people at the height… -
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.