US unemployment rate at year-end 2028
6.07%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 6.07%Middle half 4.5% – 7.69%
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US unemployment rate at year-end 2029
The odds
6.33%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 6.33%Middle half 4.33% – 8.36%
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.33% on Oct 19, 6.33% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 93% | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| Above 3.5% | 85% | 80¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | ||
| Above 4.0% | 79% | 74¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | ||
| Above 4.5% | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | ||
| Above 5.0% | 67% | 62¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | ||
| Above 5.5% | 60% | 55¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | ||
| Above 6.0% | 54% | 49¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | ||
| Above 6.5% | 48% | 43¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | ||
| Above 7.0% | 42% | 37¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | ||
| Above 7.5% | 36% | 31¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | ||
| Above 8.0% | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | ||
| Above 8.5% | 23% | 18¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Above 9.0% | 17% | 12¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | ||
| Above 9.5% | 11% | 6¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| Above 10.0% | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
Unemployment Rate Soars Past 10 PercentNovember 6, 2009 / 8:40 AM EST / CBS/AP The U.S. unemployment rate has hit double digits for the first time since 1983 - and is likely to go higher. The 10.2 percent jobless rate for October shows how weak the economy remains even though… -
What the September Jobs Report Really Changes for Global MarketsOn the surface, this can be considered a clear signal of strong labor market conditions. However, for financial markets, the numbers behind the payroll figure can matter even more. Wages, labor market participation rate, and revisions can… - Luzerne County LERTA ordinance would allow council to revoke tax breaks for missing job reportsA proposed real estate tax-break ordinance up for Luzerne County Council adoption Tuesday has more teeth. The ordinance sets reporting requirements and procedures for future tax-break requests. Originally, the document said a property…
- Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?A one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
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Unemployment Benefits Would Get Boost Under New Bill Linked to AI FearsOct 26, 2026 at 01:07 PM EDT The Stability and Opportunity for Workers Act, unveiled by Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden of Oregon, aims to broaden system coverage, extend assistance during periods of economic downturn… -
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… -
Generative AI in Payroll: How AI Transformation Is Modernizing Payroll OperationsThe objective is to improve payroll performance while maintaining the controls required for sensitive employee and financial information. Generative AI in Payroll can improve access to relevant information and reduce time spent handling… -
Most New Jobs Reported Last Year Were Revised AwayWhen first reported, the 2025 monthly jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs for the year, Steve Rattner reports. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less than reported. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members… -
Hiring in September grew much less than expected, jobs report showsHiring grew much less than expected in September as a monthslong surge of inflation weighed on shoppers and rattled bond markets, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp… - When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.I wonder how bad it actually is right now in 2016. The Strait of Hormuz is open, traffic, on average, is about 70% of what it was before the war against Iran started, but industry experts also say about 80% of the oil coming out of the…
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Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrinkJobless rate falls to 5% as employers cut 2,000 jobs in September Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrink - Sacramento apartment rents slip as seasonal softness sets in… -
Sterling up after higher inflation: The British job report was overall mixed but rates are likely to rise next monthThe pound sterling has appreciated against most other major currencies in recent days after higher inflation than expected on 21 October increased further the probability of the Bank of England (BoE) hiking to 4% in November. This article…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions