Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
The odds
38.7median
764
Median 38.7Middle half 30.8 – 46.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 35.3 on Oct 20, 38.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 98% | ▲ 1 | 96¢ | $1.02 | 101 | |
| At least 13 | 98% | ▲ 7 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.9K |
| At least 16 | 97% | ▲ 7 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 400 |
| At least 19 | 97% | ▲ 3 | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 817 |
| At least 22 | 94% | ▼ 1 | 90¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 802 |
| At least 25 | 86% | ▼ 1 | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 204 |
| At least 28 | 81% | ▲ 5 | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 178 |
| At least 31 | 75% | ▲ 3 | 71¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 269 |
| At least 35 | 63% | ▲ 4 | 59¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 452 |
| At least 40 | 46% | ▲ 11 | 42¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 815 |
| At least 46 | 27% | ▲ 2 | 23¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 2.3K |
| At least 52 | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| At least 58 | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump-won
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Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House foreverFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze recent insults from former President Barack Obama against President Donald Trump. Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House forever Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’… -
Democrats Now Spending Over $2 Million In Districts Trump Won By Double-Digit PointsHouse Democrats’ top super PAC poured over $2.2 million into deep red seats Monday that they hope to flip. The House Majority PAC spent $2.2 million on television advertisements against Republican Rep. Brad Finstad in Minnesota’s first… -
Dems in Congress say they’re wary Trump won’t accept results of electionAs Election Day approaches, top Democrats on the intelligence committees in Congress are preparing for the possibility that President Donald Trump will allege foreign interference to discredit unfavorable results.And they want leading U.S… -
We’re about to find out who really runs America – and Trump won’t like itNick Bryant: This is not how the Founding Fathers intended the power dynamics of Washington to work These documents come with the force of US law. Already, Trump has signed 291 executive orders during his second term – well over a hundred… -
WATCH: “Ask Hillary How Fake the Polls Are!” – Rapper Nicki Minaj ROASTS Hillary Clinton, Says Trump “Won Three Elections” While Traveling on Air Force One to Michigan RallyVocal Trump-supporting rapper Nicki Minaj was on Air Force One on Sunday afternoon, traveling with President Trump to Michigan, and she spoke out in favor of Trump’s agenda while slamming Hillary Clinton. She said Trump is “tough… - Trump won’t stop talking about attractiveness of men around himOctober 23, 2026 - 7.59pm Two weeks from the midterm elections that will shape the final years of Donald Trump’s presidency, voters are concerned about inflation, petrol prices and the war in Iran. But as the president hits the campaign…
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Trump won’t let me fly with him today — but he can’t silence meWhite House correspondent Andrew Feinberg explains why he won’t be covering Donald Trump’s Sioux City rally tonight — after the president attacked him in a very personal way and then had him disinvited from Air Force One — and why Team… -
Trump won Iowa by 13 points, but Republicans are on defense heading into NovemberOctober 20, 2026 / 9:04 AM CDT / AP Standing in the doorway of his home near the corn and soybean fields that blanket this stretch of northeast Iowa, Dave Roethler doesn't know what happened to the man he supported during President Trump's… -
Record-breaking ad spending is pouring into states Trump won | CNN PoliticsIn the final weeks of the midterm elections, hundreds of millions of dollars are targeting key races in states that Trump won comfortably in 2024. CNN's David Wright takes a look at where the money is moving in the closing sprint. Rising… - More than Two-Thirds of Americans Believe Trump Won’t Accept Results of the Midterms if GOP LosesBy Ahmad Austin Jr., More than two-third of Americans believe President Donald Trump won’t accept the results of the midterms if the Republican Party loses, a recent poll revealed. According to the poll, 70% of U.S. adults said they were…
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MAGA rapper’s $16M House bid teeters in district Trump won by 21 pointsA Republican businessman who recorded a 20-track rap album praising President Donald Trump is struggling to keep a deep-red upstate New York House seat in GOP hands. Anthony Constantino, the 43-year-old CEO of Sticker Mule, is running to… -
Commentary: Canadian tariffs show Trump won’t be pushed aroundPresident Trump has again proved he will not be pushed around. When Washington slapped a 50 percent tariff on $20 billion in Canadian goods, Ottawa fired back dollar-for-dollar, effective September 8, with new duties of up to 50 percent on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions