Alaska State Senate winner?
87%Republican party
- Republican party87%
- Democratic party7%
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Texas State Senate winner?
The odds
94%Republican party
- Republican party94%
- Democratic party5%
How the odds have moved
Republican party: 94% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 6.7K | |
| Democratic party | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 19.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas State Senate, Texas Senate
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race, CBS News political analysts weigh inCBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, and CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe discuss their main takeaways from polls showing Democratic candidate James Talarico in the lead… -
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the… -
Bush dynasty delivers another blow to GOP in Texas Senate battle as family member breaks ranksTexas voters split in the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as poll numbers show a dead heat. Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join the panel to discuss concerns that Talarico is too liberal and examine his past controversial… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign event in Fort BendTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign event in Fort Bend as part of his statewide tour ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign… -
Russian operatives likely spread fake videos targeting the Texas Senate race, researchers sayRussian operatives are likely trying to meddle in the Senate race in Texas in the most prominent example yet of a foreign effort to mislead voters ahead of the midterm elections, three teams of disinformation researchers said Wednesday… -
Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish'America's Newsroom' co-anchor Dana Perino discusses the high-stakes Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'Fox & Friends.' Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a… -
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceFrom left: Neil Bush, George W Bush, and George HW Bush Two members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a…
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- Democratic party77%
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Georgia State Senate winner?
88%Republican party
- Republican party88%
- Democratic party13%
Iowa State Senate winner?
93%Republican party
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Maine State Senate winner?
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Michigan State Senate winner?
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions