Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

Kalshi Elections › State & local Closes Nov 2, 2027 · $40K traded · $13.2K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

96%Citizens Only Voting Amendment

Citizens Only Voting Amendment96%
Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment93%
Water Infrastructure Bond Question85%
Economic Development Districts Amendment56%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Citizens Only Voting Amendment: 97% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Citizens Only Voting Amendment	96%		93¢	99¢	$1.01	11.2K
Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment	93%		89¢	96¢	$1.04	14.3K
Water Infrastructure Bond Question	85%		82¢	88¢	$1.14	14.2K
Economic Development Districts Amendment	56%	▲ 1	53¢	60¢	$1.67	6.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Arkansas, Citizens Only Voting Amendment, Water Infrastructure Bond Question

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In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms mapNPR · 26 h agoArkansas Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner speaks with voters at a campaign stop in Hope, Ark. Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Stephen Fowler/NPR hide caption HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political…
Early Voting Underway For General ElectionCleveland County Herald · 4 days agoRISON - Early voting is currently underway for the 2026 general election at the Hall-Morgan Veterans Building located at 404 Sycamore Street across from the courthouse in Rison. The polls will be open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. weekdays from…
Dan Greenberg Archives - Arkansas TimesArkansas Times · 5 h agoFormer Republican legislator Dan Greenberg confirmed to the Times on Wednesday he at one time “had an attorney-client relationship” with Julie McGee, the ex-girlfriend of former state Sen. Jeremy Hutchinson. Dan Greenberg, named the…
Arkansas Advocate: Arkansas amendment would allow local economic development districtsMagnolia Reporter - Magnolia · 47 h agoArkansas voters in November will consider a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow the creation of local economic development districts, a move supporters say will make the state competitive but opponents have derided as…
The Arkansas Newswrap: October 23, 2026KUAR · 36 h agoHear this week's episode of the Arkansas Newswrap, presented by Little Rock Public Radio, KUAF Fayetteville and KASU Jonesboro. The Arkansas Newswrap: October 23, 2026 Preparations are underway for the 2030 Census; we’ll hear more about…
Arkansas History for October 24: Elaine Massacre lawsuitMagnolia Reporter - Magnolia · 26 h ago1863 — Civil War fighting in northwest Arkansas. Union forces under Brigadier General John McNeil attacked Confederate cavalry commanded by Joseph O. Shelby near Buffalo Mountain. Federal artillery forced the Confederates to withdraw. The…
Arkansas in state of disaster under Sanders@arkansasonline · 32 h agoAfter four years of mismanagement by Gov. Sarah Sanders and the Arkansas Legislature, the chickens are about to come home to roost for state government. Arkansas in state of disaster under Sanders
Early voter turnout across Arkansas stays strong over first four days@arkansasonline · 13 h agoAt least 205,490 Arkansans cast ballots during the first four days of early voting, state data shows, with several of the state's largest counties reporting steep turnout numbers for a midterm election. Early voter turnout across Arkansas…
NWA EDITORIAL | Arkansas troops in D.C. should be brought back home@arkansasonline · 34 h agoThank you for your service, but we'd rather you be back home in Arkansas. That is essentially what we'd like to tell the Arkansas National Guard soldiers who stand watch over the District of Columbia ... NWA EDITORIAL | Arkansas troops in…
Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama file lawsuits over states that shield providers of mail-order abortion pills@arkansasonline · 13 h agoTwo lawsuits filed last month by Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama represent a new front in the ongoing fight over abortion in the post-Roe era, pitting red states with strict abortion bans against blue states that seek to protect healthcare…
What Arkansas needs for economic development is not Issue 3Arkansas Times · 47 h agoThe path to prosperity — economic or social — is found by investing in people, not another tax incentive for monied interests. The path to prosperity — economic or social — is found by investing in people, not another tax incentive for…
Federal monitors coming to Washington, Pulaski counties on Election Day, Arkansas officials say@arkansasonline · 40 h agoThe U.S. Department of Justice is planning to send election monitors to Washington and Pulaski counties on Election Day, a spokeswoman for Arkansas Secretary of State Cole Jester confirmed Friday. The Washington County Election Commission…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArkansas Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 2, 2027 7:59 PM ET

Traded$40K (46,650 contracts)

At stake$13.2K

In the news7 headlines today, 85 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Citizens Only Voting Amendment passes in Arkansas, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions