Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
13%chance
Install
Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
52%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 61% on Oct 20, 52% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET67% → 54%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | ▼ 2 | 51¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 4.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Suncor and Exxon, Boulder
Search ›-
Justice Kagan criticizes the Supreme Court on elections and votingNPR Justice Kagan criticizes the Supreme Court on elections and voting Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan told an audience that the conservative majority is blinding itself to the consequences of its decisions on voting rights… -
Brazil's Supreme Court suspends permit for major Amazon gold mineThe Washington Post Brazil’s Supreme Court has suspended an environmental permit for a major gold mining project in the Amazon rainforest BOGOTA, Colombia — Brazil’s Supreme Court has suspended an environmental permit for a major gold… -
Supreme Court allows gender transition care for federal prisoners for nowThe Washington Post During his first days in office, President Donald Trump signed an order directing officials to end transition care for federal prisoners with gender dysphoria. The Trump administration must continue providing transition… -
Supreme Court hands Trump a rare loss on transgender prison care policyThe Supreme Court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from suspending hormone therapy and other treatments for transgender Americans in federal prisons, a rare win for transgender rights at the conservative high court. The court… -
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s effort to restrict transgender treatment for prison inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court rebuffed the Trump administration’s emergency petition to immediately revive its restrictions on transgender treatment for inmates in federal prisons on Wednesday. President Trump’s team had requested the… -
Elena Kagan says Supreme Court's recent decisions have hurt democracyWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… - Supreme Court recusals over books raise questions about policyNPR Supreme Court recusals over books raise questions about policy A publishing dispute has highlighted the issue of recusals by Supreme Court justices. We take a look at the court's policy and its impact. NPR does not offer or accept…
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Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s… -
Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict some medical treatments for transgender inmatesUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 11:35 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday left intact a lower court decision that blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a new Bureau of Prisons policy that would end… -
Sam Wood takes bid for bail over domestic violence charges to supreme courtFormer reality star and wellness influencer stands accused of choking and assaulting wife at Noosa in Queensland Former reality television star Sam Wood will go to the Queensland supreme court seeking release from custody, more than two… -
Supreme court blocks Trump’s bid to restrict gender care for trans prisonersDecision stands in contrast to recent trans rights actions from court that often sides with Trump administration The US supreme court went against Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday, refusing to allow the immediate enforcement of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.