Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?
The odds
20.2median
035
Median 20.2Middle half 17.4 – 23.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 21.2 on Oct 19, 20.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump +5 or more | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.1K | |
| Trump +10 or more | 97% | ▼ 1 | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 8.3K |
| Trump +15 or more | 97% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 10.2K | |
| Trump +20 or more | 52% | ▲ 3 | 49¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 7.4K |
| Trump +25 or more | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 12.0K | |
| Trump +30 or more | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 23.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reddest House, Democrat
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Trump votes early in West Palm Beach, criticizes DemocratsPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot for the midterm elections Saturday in West Palm Beach, accompanied by first lady Melania Trump. After voting, Trump criticized Democrats, accusing them of widespread corruption in several states and… -
Democrats are harassing ICE agents and civiliansWashington Examiner The mere act of enforcing immigration law has Democrats losing their minds, doing anything and everything to justify their hatred of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Kerman is a heavily Hispanic city in California’s… -
Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama returned to the campaign circuit Saturday during a midterm rally in Ohio for U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton. Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in Cleveland… -
Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
The Governor’s Race That 2028 Democrats Need to WatchNevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is making his biography and labor record central to his bid for governor. Will skeptical rank-and-file voters buy his pitch? Nevada Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Aaron Ford speaks at a… -
WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders rallies with Minnesota Democrats in DuluthSen. Bernie Sanders joins Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Attorney General Keith Ellison at a Duluth, Minnesota, get-out-the-vote campaign rally. WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders rallies with Minnesota Democrats in Duluth Sen. Bernie Sanders joins… -
Democrats see an opportunity to tilt Pennsylvania's state legislature their wayStatehouse elections this fall could swing the balance of power in state capitals. In Pennsylvania, Democrats could take control of what has been a divided legislature. Democrats see an opportunity to tilt Pennsylvania's state legislature… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama speaks at a Cleveland campaign rally to support Ohio Democrats including former Senator Sherrod Brown. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in Cleveland Former President Barack Obama speaks… -
Independent candidates sense a moment in the West. Democrats are hoping they're rightPins and bumper stickers supporting Dan Osborn's candidacy for U.S. Senate sit on a campaign table on Sept. 3, 2026 at Pals Brewing Company in North Platte, Neb. Osborn, a 51-year-old Navy veteran, is running as an independent. Austin… -
Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Democrats at Detroit rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 8:27 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With a little over a week to go before the midterm elections, all eyes are on Michigan as a battleground state. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit Saturday to drum up voter support for… -
Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor saysWall Street Journal associate editor John Bussey breaks down what we can learn from early voting trends on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor says Wall Street Journal… -
Obama slams Trump’s ‘cruelty and corruption’ at Ohio rally for DemocratsFormer US president says Trump ‘chose to make a series of bad decisions’, highlighting the US-Israel war on Iran. Former United States President Barack Obama has criticised the “cruelty and corruption” during President Donald Trump’s…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions