CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.21%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.13% – 0.29%
Install
Headline PCE inflation in September (September 2026)
The odds
0.44%median
-0.1%0.8%
Median 0.44%Middle half 0.39% – 0.48%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.44% on Oct 20, 0.44% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | 99¢ | 4.7K | ||
| Above 0.1% | 98% | 96¢ | $1.02 | 3.3K | ||
| Above 0.2% | 98% | 97¢ | $1.02 | 3.1K | ||
| Above 0.3% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 245 | ||
| Above 0.4% | 73% | ▼ 1 | 72¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 450 |
| Above 0.5% | 17% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 833 |
| Above 0.6% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| Above 0.7% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 147 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
Search ›-
No Diesel Relief Until 2027, Consumer Prices Spike, Says IEA ReportGlobal diesel supply is expected to stay tight well into next year, and consumer prices have already climbed thanks to record fuel costs at the pump, according to a recently published report by the International Energy Agency. “Constrained… - Consumer Price Growth Accelerates as Core Inflation Picks UpOur work is centered around four values that make our industry strong and America exceptional: free enterprise, competitiveness, individual liberty and equal opportunity. The men and women of the NAM’s Board of Directors are committed to…
-
The Fed’s Beige Book is Mentioning Diesel a Lot More Than Before. What That Could Mean for Consumer Prices.Americans watching gasoline prices for signs of inflation may be underestimating the cost of the diesel used to fuel broader parts of the economy, including the transport of merchandise, operation of farm equipment, and delivery of… -
AT: Energy prices continue to drive inflationEnergy prices continue to drive inflation. Today, Statistics Austria published a flash estimate of Austrian inflation for September 2026. Inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 3.5 per cent y/y… -
Gold eases as higher oil prices stoke inflation concernsGold edged lower on Tuesday as rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns, with investors looking to next week's Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the US interest-rate outlook. Oil prices advanced on Tuesday, with Brent hovering… -
Hassett Says CPI Data Shows Inflation Needs ‘Some Work’(Bloomberg) -- White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said prices have been falling for items such as beef and eggs, though consumer price data for September shows overall inflation continues to need policy attention… -
Inflation Is Back. Is A Stock Market Crash Next?The S&P 500 has gained 12.3% this year. That’s with oil above $100 a barrel, consumer prices climbing 3.7% a year and a 10-year Treasury yielding 5.1%. Stocks are behaving as though none of that counts. So could inflation knock the index… -
President Donald Trump Claims, "We Don't Have Inflation, and Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation," but a New Report Strongly DisagreesBut two things can be true at once. While the stock market has enjoyed higher average annual returns under Trump than under most other presidents over the last 130 years, Donald Trump's inflation-driving policies (i.e., Trumpflation) may… -
BoJ to leave rates steady, raise inflation forecast in October meeting – ReutersAccording to a Reuters report, four sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) thinking have cited that the central bank will leave interest rates steady and raise its inflation forecast in the October policy meeting. The report… -
Inflation, not a stock market crash, is the biggest threat to your retirementThe biggest threat to your retirement savings The Washington Post -
Canada CPI expected to show a pick-up in inflation in SeptemberCanada’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention on Monday. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) October 28 gathering… -
German producer prices hit highest since March 2023 as energy costs soar, fueling inflation worriesThe breakdownWell, this marks another solid jump in German producer prices with the annual rate climbing to 6.7% now in September. That marks the strongest year-on-year increase since March 2023, with rising energy prices continuing to be…
Related markets
All inflation ›CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.76% – 4.06%
October Inflation China - Annual
0.94%median
0.5%1.4%
Median 0.94%Middle half 0.77% – 1%
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.51%median
0.6%4.9%
Median 3.51%Middle half 3.07% – 3.74%
Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
2.88%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.88%Middle half 2.73% – 3.04%
Core CPI in November (Nov 2026)
0.2%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.14% – 0.27%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.