How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

Kalshi Tech › Big tech Closes Dec 31 · $7.4K traded · $1.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

35.4median

20125

Median 35.4Middle half 28.8 – 48.9

How the odds have moved

Median: 35.4 on Oct 20, 35.4 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 25	91%		89¢	93¢	$1.08	3.3K
At least 30	70%		66¢	74¢	$1.35	3.3K
At least 40	33%		30¢	36¢	$2.78	4.3K
At least 50	24%		20¢	28¢	$3.57	1.7K
At least 75	11%	▲ 1	7¢	14¢	$7.14	1.7K
At least 100	5%		2¢	8¢	$12.50	1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Neuralink

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNeuralink, Barrow Neurological Institute, Elon Musk

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$7.4K (15,512 contracts)

This week$7.4K

At stake$1.7K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.