Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Washington's 1st District margin of victory
The odds
37.8median
2353
Median 37.8Middle half 32.6 – 42.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 37.4 on Oct 19, 37.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DelBene, 26+ pts | 94% | 90¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| DelBene, 29+ pts | 88% | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| DelBene, 32+ pts | 78% | ▼ 1 | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 200 |
| DelBene, 35+ pts | 65% | 60¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | ||
| DelBene, 38+ pts | 49% | 44¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | ||
| DelBene, 41+ pts | 34% | 29¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| DelBene, 44+ pts | 20% | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | ||
| DelBene, 47+ pts | 9% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| DelBene, 50+ pts | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.24 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Washington
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Get unlimited access toThe Washington PostBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. - Opinion Fareed… -
Cuba spent decades recruiting American spies. Now Washington is turning the tables on HavanaPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Cuba’s government has spent decades recruiting Americans to betray their… -
Washington state mom speaks up for girlsFox News Washington state mom speaks up for girls Sarah Burns, whose daughter walked off the starting line in protest of having to race a boy in a cross country meet, dons an XX-XY Athletics shirt at rally in Camas, Wash. -
CFR: Washington sees friends and enemies; Beijing sees vendors and customersCouncil on Foreign Relations' Zongyuan Zoe Liu says that a Plaza Accord-style agreement to strengthen the renminbi would be unlikely to succeed, as neither currency appreciation nor tariffs can dismantle China's dominance of global… - What East Potomac Park has meant to people who live in WashingtonIn the wake of President Donald Trump announcing a plan to reshape the historical land on a D.C. peninsula, we heard from readers about what has made it special. President Donald Trump announced Sunday a plan that would close the golf…
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Washington parents find their courage as girls walk off cross country course in protest of trans runnerAmy Sousa leads the charge at a protect women's sports rally in Camas, Wash., where a boy switched to the girls cross country team midseason. CAMAS, Wash. — The sign seemed innocuous enough. So did the man holding it. But a passing jogger… -
Washington Post journalist says attack by Israeli West Bank settlers has only ‘strengthened’ her resolveHeidi Levine, the Washington Post journalist brutally attacked by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank last week, said the terrifying ordeal has only strengthened her resolve to continue covering the plight of Palestinians. “What… -
Week Ahead in Washington: October 25WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - President Donald Trump is making his final appeal to voters ahead of Election Day, asking them to back the Republican ticket. Trump will be on the campaign trail all week, with stops planned in Mississippi on Monday… -
Washington Post: Hegseth’s staff damaged historic Eisenhower globe during move | CNN PoliticsThe Washington Post reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s staff didn't follow the process typically overseen by trained curators and dropped a historic globe used by Dwight D. Eisenhower during World War II while moving it to… -
Rubio in India: When Washington’s Tariffs BackfireWashington pressured India to cut Russian oil imports, threatened tariffs, and strained a vital partnership. Now, with trade negotiations stalled and energy security under pressure, Rubio’s visit raises a bigger question: is the US… -
Washington Turns On AI ChiefsWashington is growing impatient with the people running the artificial intelligence boom. On Capitol Hill and inside the White House, frustration is building that top AI executives are making their own political problems worse by talking… -
Is the Washington ‘millionaires tax’ really coming for public pensions?Lawmakers in Olympia approved the high-earner tax in the spring. Initiative 645 seeks to repeal it. A "no" vote on the measure keeps the tax on the books. (Andrew Burke-Stevenson / The Seattle Times) When you think about the mansion- and…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions