Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Virginia Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
22.7median
533
Median 22.7Middle half 19.1 – 27.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 21.6 on Oct 20, 22.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner, 7+ pts | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 200 | |
| Warner, 9+ pts | 96% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 200 | |
| Warner, 11+ pts | 96% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 227 |
| Warner, 13+ pts | 95% | ▲ 2 | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 5.00 |
| Warner, 15+ pts | 91% | ▲ 4 | 86¢ | 96¢ | $1.05 | 399 |
| Warner, 17+ pts | 84% | ▲ 4 | 79¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 236 |
| Warner, 19+ pts | 76% | ▲ 1 | 72¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 795 |
| Warner, 21+ pts | 63% | ▼ 2 | 59¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 2.2K |
| Warner, 23+ pts | 48% | ▼ 5 | 43¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 240 |
| Warner, 25+ pts | 38% | ▼ 3 | 33¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 538 |
| Warner, 27+ pts | 28% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 3.00 |
| Warner, 29+ pts | 19% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 12.00 |
| Warner, 31+ pts | 11% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Virginia Senate
Search ›-
DOJ Charges Virginia Senate Leader, Louise LucasThe Trump administration has charged one of the most powerful Democratic lawmakers in Virginia with racketeering and money laundering conspiracy in connection to a cannabis business she co-owns with family members. Six other people were… -
Pope & Schapiro: The implications of the Lucas indictmentThe indictment against Virginia Senate President Louise Lucas was the biggest story this week in state government and politics. Michael Pope and Radio IQ Politics Analyst Jeff Schapiro discuss the implications and more from the week that… -
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger Isn't Pleased With Top Dem Being ArrestedCam had the story this morning: Virginia State Sen. Louise Lucas has been arrested on narcotics charges. She serves as the president of the state Senate. In May, federal agents searched Lucas’ home as part of an ongoing probe into… -
‘Timing? She’s Accused of Distributing Drugs’: Critics Slam Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger for Questioning the Timing of State Sen. Louise Lucas’ IndictmentShe’s not even up for reelection Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger faced criticism after questioning the timing of state Sen. L. Louise Lucas’ federal indictment. Lucas faces drug-trafficking allegations, but Spanberger warned that bringing… -
Virginia Corruption Probeyoursun.com FILE - Virginia Senate President pro tempore Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, listens to debate on the Senate floor, Feb. 17, 2026, in Richmond, Va. There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar… -
Are Trump Cronies Picking On An 82-Year Old Senior Citizen?Virginia Senator Louise Lucas faces federal marijuana charges, but her history of challenging Confederate monuments and Donald Trump raises real questions about political retaliation. Houston Williams • Oct 23, 2026 @ 1:04 PM This not… -
Nation’s first elected Black governor: ‘Don’t stop. You haven’t gotten there.’Former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder was the speaker on Oct. 8 at the 70th anniversary of the Richmond Crusade for Voters, an organization established by three Black men to push voter registration amidst racist resistance to Black political… -
Who Is Suhas Subramanyam? Indian-American Democrat Seeks Re-Election In Virginia’s 10th District; Education, Career, Family And Net WorthMr Suhas Subramanyam is an Indian American political figure who represents Virginia’s 10th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. This individual is a lawyer and an ex-advisor to the White House on issues of… -
The Latest: Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early votingWalberg voted for tax cuts for the wealthy and price hikes for the rest of us. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Pitt–Greenville Airport, Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, in Greenville, N.C. President Donald Trump speaks in the… -
Sheriffs Say Greg Abbott Is Lying About Their EndorsementsTexas Republican Governor Greg Abbott publicized the endorsements of 11 Democratic sheriffs. Three of them denied ever endorsing him. Zapata County Sheriff Ramon Montes, Val Verde County Sheriff Joe Frank Martinez, and Webb County Sheriff… -
Bridgeport City Council to consider zoning changes, Cherry Grove developmentBRIDGEPORT, W.Va. — Bridgeport City Council will consider two zoning changes, discuss the Cherry Grove development and review potential changes to the city’s election cycles during its Oct. 26 meeting. The regular meeting is scheduled for… -
Feds Arrest Top Democratic Leader in Redistricting FightVirginia Senate President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas, the Democratic leader behind the state’s redistricting effort, was arrested Thursday in connection with an alleged bribery and racketeering scheme. In a 45-page indictment filed in the…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions