Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Texas Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
35%Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
015
How the odds have moved
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts: 39% on Oct 20, 35% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton, 1+ pts | 35% | 34¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 234.3K | |
| Ken Paxton, 2+ pts | 28% | ▼ 3 | 27¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 29.8K |
| Ken Paxton, 3+ pts | 23% | ▼ 3 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 375.2K |
| Ken Paxton, 4+ pts | 19% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 37.6K |
| Ken Paxton, 5+ pts | 11% | ▼ 6 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 283.7K |
| Ken Paxton, 6+ pts | 9% | ▼ 3 | 9¢ | 9¢ | $10.75 | 16.1K |
| Ken Paxton, 7+ pts | 7% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 142.6K |
| Ken Paxton, 8+ pts | 6% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 2.0K | |
| Ken Paxton, 9+ pts | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $18.87 | 35.4K | |
| Ken Paxton, 11+ pts | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | 14.5K | |
| Ken Paxton, 13+ pts | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | 23.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race, CBS News political analysts weigh inCBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, and CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe discuss their main takeaways from polls showing Democratic candidate James Talarico in the lead… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Texas early voting data trends, what analysts are focusing on in the Texas Senate raceCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
What analysts are watching in the Texas Senate race, CBS News political experts weigh inCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas With the early voting period halfway over and Election Day looming, the candidates for U.S. Senate in Texas continue to cross the state to get their supporters to the polls. Both the Democratic… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the… -
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest… -
Bush dynasty delivers another blow to GOP in Texas Senate battle as family member breaks ranksTexas voters split in the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as poll numbers show a dead heat. Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join the panel to discuss concerns that Talarico is too liberal and examine his past controversial… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
Paxton, Talarico Battle in Competitive Texas Senate RaceDALLAS—A Democrat hasn’t won a Texas Senate race in decades. In these midterms, some feel that could change. Amid a fractious election cycle midway through the second Trump administration, early in-person voting is already underway in the… -
Talarico Takes Aim At Musk In Texas Senate FightJames Talarico is sharpening his attack on Elon Musk as the Texas Senate race tightens, turning the billionaire into one of the clearest targets in his campaign against Republican Ken Paxton. The Democratic nominee has increasingly framed…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions