Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Texas's 35th District margin of victory
The odds
23%Cruz, 1+ pts
-216
How the odds have moved
Cruz, 1+ pts: 34% on Oct 20, 23% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 12 PM ETCruz, 1+ pts: 24% → 18%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz, 1+ pts | 23% | 18¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 3.1K | |
| Cruz, 4+ pts | 12% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 723 | |
| Cruz, 7+ pts | 6% | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| Cruz, 10+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $12.66 | |||
| Cruz, 13+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $16.39 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas
Search ›-
Crossroads of Texas GO TEXAN Country Festival draws crowdsCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Crossroads of Texas GO… -
Texas early voting data trends, what analysts are focusing on in the Texas Senate raceCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
Crossroads of Texas Go Texan Country Festival gets underway in WaxahachieCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Crossroads of Texas Go… -
Baseball bat vendor discusses the draw at the Crossroads of Texas Go Texan Country FestivalCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Baseball bat vendor… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, TexasTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters during a "Come and Take It" campaign tour stop in Selma, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, Texas Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Black Out Sunday engages 1,000 Texas churches for early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 2:51 PM CDT / CBS Texas Early voting is entering its final week, and North Texas faith leaders are pushing to get congregations to the polls. The Black Out Sunday initiative aims to engage a thousand churches across… -
Texas voters cast early ballots in key senate raceIn Texas, early voting is underway. The state's tight race for U.S. Senate will ultimately help decide the balance of power in Washington. Meanwhile, in Texas, early voting in the midterms is underway. The candidates in the U.S. Senate… -
North Texas stays warm and dry as drought concerns growSunny skies and highs in the 80s will continue across North Texas over the next several days, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average in some areas. But the extended stretch of warm, dry weather is raising concerns as… -
Why a Texas Candidate Who Died Weeks Ago Could Still Win ElectionOct 25, 2026 at 11:39 AM EDT A Texas judicial candidate who died in September will remain on the ballot for the November 3 election, meaning he could still win despite having died weeks before voters head to the polls. Richard Davis, the… -
Perfect fall weekend weather in store for North TexasAdd CBS News on Google North Texas was off to a seasonable start on Saturday morning, with temperatures mainly in the 50s. Temperatures will remain above average this weekend, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Perfect fall weekend… -
What analysts are watching in the Texas Senate race, CBS News political experts weigh inCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions