Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
Install
Tennessee Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
23.8median
238
Median 23.8Middle half 17.3 – 27.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 23.5 on Oct 20, 23.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hagerty, 4+ pts | 95% | 94¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 16.00 | |
| Hagerty, 6+ pts | 95% | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 15.00 | |
| Hagerty, 8+ pts | 95% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 408 |
| Hagerty, 10+ pts | 93% | 90¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 210 | |
| Hagerty, 12+ pts | 92% | ▲ 2 | 88¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 10.00 |
| Hagerty, 14+ pts | 87% | ▲ 5 | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.09 | 924 |
| Hagerty, 16+ pts | 79% | ▲ 7 | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 1.2K |
| Hagerty, 18+ pts | 73% | ▲ 8 | 70¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 434 |
| Hagerty, 20+ pts | 67% | ▲ 11 | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 1.1K |
| Hagerty, 22+ pts | 59% | ▲ 14 | 55¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 783 |
| Hagerty, 24+ pts | 49% | ▲ 14 | 45¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 1.4K |
| Hagerty, 26+ pts | 36% | ▲ 10 | 31¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 164 |
| Hagerty, 28+ pts | 25% | ▲ 7 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 556 |
| Hagerty, 30+ pts | 16% | ▲ 5 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 7.00 |
| Hagerty, 32+ pts | 9% | ▲ 3 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | |
| Hagerty, 34+ pts | 5% | ▲ 1 | 0¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | |
| Hagerty, 36+ pts | 4% | 7¢ | $13.89 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tennessee Senate
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Candidates give case for Tenn. Senate District 31 seatThe race for Tennessee Senate District 31 features incumbent Republican Brent Taylor and Democratic challenger David Weatherspoon presenting contrasting backgrounds and platforms. MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - The race for Tennessee Senate… -
Williamson, Inc. is driving the conversation with transportation issues at Policy TalksSPRING HILL — On Monday, Oct. 19, the Spring Hill Board of Mayor and Aldermen unanimously passed Resolution 26-302, to proceed with plans for an interlocal wastewater agreement with the City of Columbia. MURFREESBORO – For the first time… - Two polls, two different pictures of Tennessee governor's raceJohnson City Press NASHVILLE â Two polls released Tuesday are showing vastly different results in who Tennesseans support for Tennessee's next governor The first, conducted by Republican-heavy pollster Spry Strategies, shows U.S…
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Sen. Janice Bowling Pushes Back Against Possible Removal From Republican CaucusState Sen. Janice Bowling of Tullahoma is pushing back against discussions about removing her from the Tennessee Senate Republican Caucus after she endorsed an independent candidate for governor. Bowling, who represents Coffee County and… -
Tennessee GOP senator says ‘no basis’ to expel her from caucusA Tennessee Republican senator says the Senate GOP caucus has "no basis" to expel her for endorsing an independent gubernatorial candidate as a Senate speakership vote approaches. Sen. Janice Bowling, a 14-year lawmaker from Tullahoma… -
Early voting runs through Oct. 29The Williamson Herald is partnering with Williamson, Inc. to bring readers recorded interviews with candidates for Tennessee governor, two congressional seats and Fairview mayor ahead of the Nov. 3 election. FRANKLIN – From a state… -
Tennessee Senate leaders predict no move to expel member for rogue endorsementTennessee's Senate Republican Caucus won't try to remove a member for a rogue endorsement before the election of a new Senate speaker, two key lawmakers said Monday, a move that could affect the outcome of a tight race. Senate Majority… -
2026 Tennessee ballot referendum questions: What to know about crime and taxesIn addition to consequential races for governor, U.S. Senate and the state legislature, midterms voters will weigh in on three proposed changes to the Tennessee Constitution. The changes, if approved, will make it easier to deny bail to… -
Election commission warning of scam as early voting starts in TennesseeNASHVILLE, Tenn. (WSMV) - The Montgomery County Election Commission is warning the public about a scam regarding disqualifying ballots as early voting begins in Tennessee. “The Montgomery County Election Commission is warning residents… -
ELECTION GUIDE, NOV. 3, 2026: TN, MS and ARMarquita Bradshaw (D) – Bradshaw is a Memphis native who ran against Sen. Bill Hagerty in 2020. She also ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2024. Bradshaw is a community activist and has served as the environmental justice… -
Election 2026: Early voting for Tennessee’s November 3 general election is underwayNASHVILLE, Tenn. (WSMV) - Tennessee voters will cast ballots in the State and Federal General Election on Tuesday, November 3. But first, early voting begins in Tennessee on Wednesday, October 14. Races on the ballot include governor, U.S… -
Early voting begins Oct. 14; governor, state senator and amendments on ballotEarly voting in Bradley County begins Wednesday, Oct. 14 and runs through Oct. 29, with several state races including the governor’s race on the ballot. The actual election date is Tuesday, Nov. 3, but residents have the opportunity to…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
23%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 33.3 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
57median
4272
Median 57Middle half 52.4 – 61.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions