Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
South Dakota Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
12.8median
137
Median 12.8Middle half 7.33 – 18.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 11.4 on Oct 20, 12.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rounds, 3+ pts | 92% | ▲ 3 | 90¢ | 93¢ | $1.07 | 40.00 |
| Rounds, 5+ pts | 85% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.00 |
| Rounds, 7+ pts | 77% | ▼ 1 | 72¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 407 |
| Rounds, 9+ pts | 68% | ▼ 1 | 64¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 1.0K |
| Rounds, 11+ pts | 59% | ▼ 1 | 54¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 723 |
| Rounds, 13+ pts | 49% | ▼ 1 | 44¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 468 |
| Rounds, 15+ pts | 41% | 36¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 3.5K | |
| Rounds, 17+ pts | 31% | 26¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.5K | |
| Rounds, 19+ pts | 22% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 547 |
| Rounds, 21+ pts | 16% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.1K |
| Rounds, 23+ pts | 10% | 5¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.8K | |
| Rounds, 25+ pts | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.2K |
| Rounds, 27+ pts | 4% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | $11.76 | 711 | |
| Rounds, 29+ pts | 4% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | |
| Rounds, 31+ pts | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.2K | |
| Rounds, 33+ pts | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | ||
| Rounds, 35+ pts | 3% | 5¢ | $19.23 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Dakota Senate
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Mike Rounds Appears Safe in South Dakota Senate RaceA new Quantus Insights poll in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Brian Bengs (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 57% to 36%. South Dakota Senate Race Mike Rounds (R) 57% Brian Bengs (I) 36% Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±4.1% A… -
Mike Rounds Leads in South Dakota Senate RaceA new KELOLAND News/Emerson College poll in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Brian Bengs (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 42%. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling… -
Democrat Aaron Matson shares vision for SD District 11SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO)-- Election day is right around the corner, and KELOLAND News interviewed several Sioux Falls candidates all vying to be South Dakota's next batch of lawmakers. Republican Chris Karr, and Democrat Aaron Matson are… -
Ranchers Say Trump’s Beef Imports Have GOP Senator Mike Rounds ‘Treading Water’ In South DakotaPresident Donald Trump’s foreign beef imports have backfired on Republican South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds’ reelection campaign, South Dakota cattle ranchers told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Rounds faces a competitive race against… -
Unusually High Number Of Independent Candidates Seek South Dakota Legislative SeatsThe South Dakota Senate meets on Feb. 11, 2026, at the Capitol in Pierre. The Nov. 3 general election could be an independents’ day of sorts for South Dakota. In addition to independent Brian Bengs challenging incumbent Republican U.S… -
Hear from Calabrese, Howard at candidate forum Oct. 21Voters in South Dakota Senate District 34 can hear from the candidates seeking to represent them during a candidate forum in Rapid City. Scenes from the 8th annual Remembering the Children Walk on Monday, Oct. 12, in Rapid City. Nikki… - Republicans Are Even Ramping Up Campaign Spending In Deep-Red South Dakota NowRepublicans began ramping up spending in South Dakota’s Senate race weeks before the election as South Dakotans continued to disapprove of President Donald Trump’s economic policies. The South Dakota Conservative PAC spent $590,861 in…
- South Dakota Capitol flags to fly at half-staff for former senatorFlags at Half-Staff at State Capitol in Honor of Elmer Bietz KOTA Territory News RAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA) - Gov. Larry Rhoden has ordered flags at the South Dakota State Capitol to be flown at half-staff Tuesday, Oct. 13, in honor of former…
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Flags to fly at half-staff Tuesday for former senator Elmer BietzKTIV PIERRE, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Flags at the South Dakota State Capitol will fly at half-staff Tuesday, honoring former state Senator Elmer Bietz, who served in the state Legislature for nearly a decade. On Saturday, Governor Larry… -
Flags to fly at half-staff at the capital Tuesday October 13th in honor of the late former state legislature Elmer BietzThe folks from the Aberdeen Catholic school system joins us to talk about everything going on at Roncalli and beyond this month… Today, Governor Larry Rhoden ordered that flags be flown at half-staff at the State Capitol from sunrise until… -
Flags at Half-Staff at State Capitol in Honor of Elmer BietzSouth Dakota War College - Flags at Half-Staff at State Capitol in Honor of Elmer Bietz PIERRE, S.D. – Today, Governor Larry Rhoden ordered that flags be flown at half-staff at the State Capitol from sunrise until sunset on Tuesday…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions