South Dakota margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $838 traded · $526 at stake · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

23median
737
Median 23Middle half 17.7 – 28.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 23.2 on Oct 19, 23 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jackley, 10+ pts 94% 90¢ 97¢ $1.03
Jackley, 13+ pts 91% 86¢ 95¢ $1.05
Jackley, 16+ pts 82% ▼ 1 77¢ 86¢ $1.16
Jackley, 19+ pts 70% 65¢ 75¢ $1.33 266
Jackley, 22+ pts 55% 50¢ 60¢ $1.67 167
Jackley, 25+ pts 40% 35¢ 45¢ $2.22 405
Jackley, 28+ pts 26% 21¢ 31¢ $3.23 1.2K
Jackley, 31+ pts 14% 10¢ 19¢ $5.26 600
Jackley, 34+ pts 6% 2¢ 11¢ $9.09 17.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: South Dakota

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  • South Dakota mail-in voters want process preservedSDPB · 19 h agoAround 10,000 South Dakotans have asked for absentee ballots via mail. That’s about 22% of the ballots requested so far for early voting. President Donald Trump has been fighting for new guardrails and restrictions on mail-in voting. The…
  • South Dakota 2010 Election ResultsMultiState Elections · 30 h agoMultiState 2010 results › South Dakota Another state… Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts…
  • Independent US Senate candidate in South Dakota backed by Forward PartyYahoo News · 12 h agoSIOUX FALLS — South Dakota's independent U.S. Senate candidate, Brian Bengs, said Sunday he "would probably not be here in a competitive position today" without the support he's gotten from a new political party co-founded by a former…
  • I'm independent Brian Bengs. This is why I want South Dakota's vote for SenateFox News · 4 days agoI’m running to put South Dakota first, and to work with anyone, whatever their politics, when it’s in the interest of our state. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images) More than at any time in my life, I believe our…
  • South Dakota District 4 House Candidate Emelia Enquist Discusses Property Taxes, Data Centers in WatertownNortheast Radio SD · 36 h agoNortheast Radio SD News – Watertown, SD - Emelia Enquist, a Democratic candidate for the South Dakota House of Representatives in District 4, joined Northeast Radio SD live in the Watertown studio to discuss her background, campaign…
  • South Dakota election polls reaching drastically different conclusions@dakotanews_now · 2 days agoSIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Election Day is right around the corner, with many key seats up for grabs. The races are heating up, and candidates are keeping score. However, polling is proving to be complicated with very different…
  • Jackley: Gun suppressors ‘important’ in South Dakota@dakotanews_now · 2 days agoSouth Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors are more than just a Second Amendment issue—they are a major economic driver in his state. SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - South Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors…
  • States join South Dakota in Mayday Health legal battle@dakotanews_now · 2 days agoSouth Dakotans can drop off unused and expired prescription drugs on Saturday as part of the DEA’s 31st National Prescription Drug Take Back Day. States join South Dakota in Mayday Health legal battle Children’s Home Society cuts ribbon on…
  • Exclusive / Poll shows big lead for South Dakota Republican Roundssemafor.com · 4 days agoRepublican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota leads in his Senate race by more than 20 points, according to a new poll shared first with Semafor, a sign that any blue wave in November will have its limits. Rounds is trouncing independent…
  • South Dakota voters urged to verify polling locations ahead of Election Day@kotatweets · 3 days agoRAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA) - South Dakota voters are being encouraged to confirm their polling locations before heading out to vote in the Nov. 3 general election. The Secretary of State’s Office warns that polling places may have changed…
  • South Dakota 2026 Poll: Republican Sen. Rounds Leads Independent Bengs 50% to 42%Emerson Polling · 3 days agoRhoden Holds Double-Digit Lead in Gubernatorial Race A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND poll finds 50% of voters support incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds, while 42% support independent candidate Brian Bengs. Eight percent are…
  • South Dakota 2026 Election ResultsMultiState Elections · 3 days ago2026 results › South Dakota General election, November 3, 2026 Results will appear on this page on election night, November 3, 2026, as votes are counted. The last polls in South Dakota close at 9 PM ET. Follow every state live → On the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions