South Carolina's 4th District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $186 traded · $180 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

15.8median

333

Median 15.8Middle half 9.83 – 21.4

How the odds have moved

Median: 16.5 on Oct 19, 15.8 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Timmons, 6+ pts	89%		84¢	94¢	$1.07
Timmons, 9+ pts	78%		76¢	79¢	$1.27	42.00
Timmons, 12+ pts	69%	▼ 1	64¢	73¢	$1.37
Timmons, 15+ pts	54%	▼ 1	49¢	58¢	$1.72	116
Timmons, 18+ pts	40%	▼ 1	35¢	44¢	$2.27
Timmons, 21+ pts	27%	▼ 1	22¢	31¢	$3.23	295
Timmons, 24+ pts	15%	▼ 1	11¢	19¢	$5.26
Timmons, 27+ pts	7%	▼ 1	3¢	11¢	$9.09	140
Timmons, 30+ pts	5%		1¢	9¢	$11.76	75.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: South Carolina

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Graham gains data center industry backing in tight South Carolina Senate raceCrypto Briefing · 6 h agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Bulwark on Sunday: South Carolina? Florida? Mississippi?! Democrats Test the Limits of a Blue WaveThe Bulwark · 17 h agoA recording from The Bulwark's live video Bulwark on Sunday: South Carolina? Florida? Mississippi?! Democrats Test the Limits of a Blue Wave A recording from The Bulwark’s live video Could Democrats really flip Senate seats in deep-red…
Protesters removed as Trump rallies behind Darline Graham in South CarolinaCBS News · 4 days agoPresident Trump threw his support behind Sen. Darline Graham at a South Carolina rally on Wednesday. Plus, candidates in Ohio and Michigan continue to throw jabs as midterm campaigns reach their peak. Weijia Jiang reports. Trump rallies in…
Protesters disrupt Donald Trump's South Carolina rally – videothe Guardian · 4 days agoThe US president rallied in Clemson, South Carolina, for Republican senator Darline Graham on 21 October. Tension marked the event as several demonstrators were removed and in at least two instances Trump supporters allegedly physically…
Fact Check: Did Trump make a strange noise during South Carolina rally?MEAWW News · 3 days agoPENDLETON, SOUTH CAROLINA: With the midterm elections just days away, a video circulating on social media platforms claims that President Donald Trump made a strange noise during the rally in South Carolina. The claim has sparked mockery…
Does video show Trump making strange noise during South Carolina rally?Snopes · 2 days agoPeople spread the clip — which was easily authenticated via the original C-SPAN footage — on various social media platforms. It's anybody's guess whether it was a burp (or other an involuntary noise), or purposeful expression of dislike or…
Trump makes ‘weird noises’ during South Carolina, Iowa rallies; social media users baffled by ‘eugh’ soundHindustan Times · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump appeared to make ‘weird sounds’ when speaking at rallies in South Carolina and Iowa. Several social media users shared videos of his speech flagging the strange noises the Republican appeared to be making. The…
Over 350K early votes cast so far in South Carolina@foxcarolinanews · 3 days agoCOLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) - Over 350,000 ballots have been cast over the first four days of South Carolina’s early voting period. Data from the South Carolina Election Commission shows 82,886 ballots were cast statewide on Thursday, bringing…
Democrat Nancy Lacore outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 race@WTOC11 · 2 days agoCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Democrat Nancy Lacore said ending corruption and lowering the cost of living are focuses of her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat. Lacore is running against Republican Jenny Costa…
‘Man, I loved that’: Trump cheers South Carolina rally attender who hit protesterthe Guardian · 5 days agoPresident was reportedly heckled at least nine times during campaign event for Darline Graham Multiple protesters were removed from Donald Trump’s rally at South Carolina’s Clemson University on Wednesday, including one who was apparently…
South Carolina to be awarded $10M by FEMA for Helene recoverySouth Carolina Public Radio · 3 days agoThe federal package was announced Thursday. - On Air Now Playing South Carolina Public Radio – News & Talk - On Air Now Playing South Carolina Public Radio - News & Music South Carolina to be awarded $10M by FEMA for Helene recovery The…
Former Governor of South Carolina Endorses Ralph Norman Over Darline GrahamThe Epoch Times · 3 days agoWASHINGTON—More lines have been drawn in the South Carolina special primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham as the Republican Senate nominee. Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, who came in fourth in the Aug. 11 primary, has thrown…

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Alabama's 1st District margin of victory

25.6median

1560

Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7

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Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

24%Figures, 2+ pts

-132

Elections

Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory

38.6median

2454

Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5

Elections

Alabama's 4th District margin of victory

59.2median

4272

Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5

Elections

Alabama's 5th District margin of victory

23.6median

737

Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9

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Alabama's 6th District margin of victory

26.2median

1548

Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onSouth Carolina State Election Commission

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$186 (668 contracts)

At stake$180

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in South Carolina's 4th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions