Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory
The odds
13.3median
036
Median 13.3Middle half 7.50 – 18.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 11.4 on Oct 19, 13.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly, 3+ pts | 90% | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | ||
| Kelly, 6+ pts | 81% | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| Kelly, 9+ pts | 70% | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | ||
| Kelly, 12+ pts | 56% | ▼ 1 | 52¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 300 |
| Kelly, 15+ pts | 41% | 36¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | ||
| Kelly, 18+ pts | 27% | 22¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | ||
| Kelly, 21+ pts | 16% | 11¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 190 | |
| Kelly, 24+ pts | 8% | 3¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 211 | |
| Kelly, 27+ pts | 5% | 0¢ | 9¢ | $10.87 | 367 | |
| Kelly, 30+ pts | 4% | 7¢ | $13.70 | 321 | ||
| Kelly, 33+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $18.18 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pennsylvania
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Pennsylvania ‘lookback’ bill for child sexual assault survivors again stalledLaw would open two-year window for child sexual abuse victims to file lawsuits beyond statute of limitations Child sexual assault survivors in Pennsylvania are on the verge of being denied the opportunity to sue their attackers after a… -
New Pennsylvania law classifies 911 dispatchers as first respondersCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. New… -
Can GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate who's bucked Trump, keep his Pennsylvania swing seat?Over nearly 10 years in Congress, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has cultivated an image as a middle-of-the-road GOP lawmaker who operates above the partisan fray and is willing to buck President Donald Trump. "Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian… -
Democrats see an opportunity to tilt Pennsylvania's state legislature their wayStatehouse elections this fall could swing the balance of power in state capitals. In Pennsylvania, Democrats could take control of what has been a divided legislature. Democrats see an opportunity to tilt Pennsylvania's state legislature… -
Allegheny County becomes first in Pennsylvania to adopt paid parental leave policyOctober 24, 2026 / 12:06 PM EDT / CBS Pittsburgh On Tuesday, Allegheny County made history as the first county in Pennsylvania to adopt paid parental leave for workers. In an 11-4 vote, Allegheny County Council passed the plan, which was… -
Pennsylvania voter explains his shift from liberal to conservativePennsylvania voter James Shafer explains why he went from a liberal Democrat to a conservative Republican on ‘America Reports.’ ... Pennsylvania voter explains his shift from liberal to conservative Pennsylvania voter James Shafer explains… -
Poverty simulation gives Pennsylvania participants glimpse of life on tight budgetCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Poverty… -
Working-class voters could play key role in Pennsylvania House racesPennsylvania voter James Shafer discusses how inflation, rising gas prices and the economy are affecting working-class voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections on ‘America Reports.’ ... Working-class voters could play key role in… -
Pennsylvania one of the first states to require disclosures on AI-generated adsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting… -
Gov. Shapiro signs bill into law defunding cat, dog testing in PennsylvaniaCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Gov… -
Pennsylvania abuse bill bogs down again as survivors waitChild sexual abuse survivors in Pennsylvania are once again watching a long-promised legal window slip away, after a bill that would let them file old claims against alleged abusers stalled in the state legislature. The proposal would… -
Pennsylvania enacts law regulating AI-generated advertisementsThe purpose of the bill is to combat false or misleading advertising, which is much easier to engage in with the help of AI-generated content. The bill, as introduced, states: And because it applies to all advertising shown in…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions