Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Oklahoma's 5th District margin of victory
The odds
7.60median
-129
Median 7.60Middle half 2.12 – 12.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 17 on Oct 20, 7.60 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bice, 2+ pts | 76% | ▼ 1 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 3.0K |
| Bice, 5+ pts | 63% | ▲ 1 | 60¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | |
| Bice, 8+ pts | 48% | ▲ 1 | 45¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 330 |
| Bice, 11+ pts | 33% | ▼ 1 | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 963 |
| Bice, 14+ pts | 20% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 515 |
| Bice, 17+ pts | 10% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 254 |
| Bice, 20+ pts | 5% | 0¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 800 | |
| Bice, 23+ pts | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | ||
| Bice, 26+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $17.54 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Oklahoma
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Democrats are dreaming of a 2018 repeat in a deep red Oklahoma districtBack in 2018, the last time Republicans faced an angry midterm electorate with President Donald Trump in the White House, Oklahoma’s 5th District wasn’t on the radar for most strategists in either ... Back in 2018, the last time… -
Oklahoma Chronicle: What to know about race for Oklahoma AG, 5th Congressional District, SQ 845Oklahoma is just a little more than a week away from the midterm elections, during which voters will decide on local, state and federal races. On top of deciding who will be Oklahoma’s next governor, voters will decide who will represent… -
Who's running to be Oklahoma's next Commissioner of Labor?A candidate from each state-recognized political party is running to lead the Oklahoma Department of Labor. Republican Kevin West, Libertarian Mike Hall and Democrat Kevin Dawson will face off on the Nov. 3 midterm election ballot. The… -
Could north Tulsa offer clues to increasing Oklahoma voter turnout?Only one in four eligible voters cast a ballot in Oklahoma’s June primary election. In north Tulsa, where turnout is historically low, field organizers say increasing the number of people at the polls requires being more intentional about… -
How Oklahoma's candidates for insurance commissioner say they'll lower home premiumsThe single biggest issue in the race is the cost of homeowners' insurance rates. On average, Oklahomans pay more than $5,500 a year for home insurance premiums. That is 120% over the national average and the highest average in the nation… -
How do Oklahoma gubernatorial candidates' time in the legislature match their campaign agenda?Republican Mike Mazzei and Democrat Cyndi Munson both served long tenures in the state legislature before throwing their hat in to become Oklahoma's next Governor. From 2004 to 2016, then-State Senator Mazzei and Senate Finance Chair stuck… -
Oklahoma Chronicle: What changes if State Question 845 passes on Election Day?Oklahoma voters will decide State Question 845, which could change who serves on the Judicial Nominating Commission. Oklahoma is just a little more than a week away from the midterm elections, during which voters will decide on local… -
Oklahoma Chronicle: Candidates for state attorney general bring different backgrounds to raceA former federal prosecutor and a longtime state legislator are facing off for Oklahoma attorney general on Nov. 3. Oklahoma is just a little more than a week away from the midterm elections, during which voters will decide on local, state… - Oklahoma SQ 847 proposes decreasing cap on property tax growthOklahoma law limits that growth separately for different types of properties. Homestead and agricultural properties are currently capped at 3%, whereas real property is capped at 5%. SQ 847 proposes decreasing those caps by more than 1%…
- Oklahoma's midterm election nears. Here's our advice | EditorialLess than than two weeks remain before the 2026 election takes place. In this non-presidential election, commonly called a midterm, Oklahoma's statewide offices are on the ballot, along with all House seats in Congress and the state…
- What changes would State Question 845 make in Oklahoma?Oklahoma voters will decide State Question 845, which would change how judges are chosen and remove limits on attorney members. Who gets a seat at the table when Oklahoma's judges are chosen? State Question 845 would change who can serve…
- Can Democrat Jena Nelson unseat Republican Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma?National observers are paying attention to one congressional race in Oklahoma as incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Stephanie Bice hopes to retain her seat that was once blue. The Democratic Party is making a late push in the race after an…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions