Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Ohio's 12th District margin of victory
The odds
24.1median
939
Median 24.1Middle half 15.8 – 31.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 23.5 on Oct 19, 24.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balderson, 12+ pts | 88% | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.08 | 11.00 | |
| Balderson, 15+ pts | 78% | ▼ 1 | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | |
| Balderson, 18+ pts | 69% | ▼ 1 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | |
| Balderson, 21+ pts | 60% | ▼ 1 | 55¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 63.00 |
| Balderson, 24+ pts | 51% | ▼ 1 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 283 |
| Balderson, 27+ pts | 40% | ▼ 1 | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | |
| Balderson, 30+ pts | 29% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 711 |
| Balderson, 33+ pts | 20% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 9.00 |
| Balderson, 36+ pts | 10% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 585 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ohio
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Ohio Venues Cancel Vivek Ramaswamy Events as Backlash GrowsOct 26, 2026 at 07:31 AM EDT Ohio venues are pulling out of hosting Republican campaign events featuring gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, as backlash grows over his advert featuring his Democratic opponent Amy Acton's estranged… -
Ohio's Biggest Newspaper Breaks Endorsement Policy To Slam Vivek RamaswamyOct 26, 2026 at 03:46 AM EDT Ohio's largest newspaper has reversed its policy against endorsing candidates in major races to back Democrat Amy Acton for governor, condemning Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for his campaign advert featuring… -
Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on… -
Ramaswamy challenges Amy Acton to debate ahead of Ohio governor's electionOhio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss the state's tightening race, his controversial campaign ad and key voter issues eight days before the midterm elections. Ramaswamy challenges Amy Acton to debate… -
Discontent with Trump buoys Democrats in Ohio: ‘People are disgusted by the corruption’In a reliably red state, candidates say dissatisfied voters tell them they’re planning to vote Democrat for the first time Democrat Kim McCarthy is canvassing in a middle-class Ohio neighborhood of four-bedroom, three-bathroom homes. There… -
Obama slams Trump on campaign trail in OhioCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm CBS News New York CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm KDKA News at 7 CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Congressional candidates highlight issues facing voters in New York, Ohio, UtahCongressional candidates Michael LiPetri, Eric Conroy and Riley Owen join 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss generational change in Congress as elections approach. Congressional candidates highlight issues facing voters in New York, Ohio… -
Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretchFox News Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretch Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss early voting numbers, his reelection campaign strategy and the key issues shaping the midterm elections. Ohio Senate candidate Jon… -
Obama advocates for Democratic candidates in battleground Ohio midtermsFormer President Barack Obama is on the campaign trail in Cleveland, Ohio, advocating for the state's Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm elections. CNN's Lauren Fox reports. Obama advocates for Democratic candidates in battleground… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama speaks at a Cleveland campaign rally to support Ohio Democrats including former Senator Sherrod Brown. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in Cleveland Former President Barack Obama speaks… -
Former President Obama rallies with Democratic nominees in Ohio amid electionsFox News reporter Alexandria Hoff joins 'Fox Report' to discuss former President Barack Obama's Ohio campaign visit, voter reactions and the state's Senate and gubernatorial races. Former President Obama rallies with Democratic nominees in… -
Obama slams Trump’s ‘cruelty and corruption’ at Ohio rally for DemocratsFormer US president says Trump ‘chose to make a series of bad decisions’, highlighting the US-Israel war on Iran. Former United States President Barack Obama has criticised the “cruelty and corruption” during President Donald Trump’s…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions