Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Nevada's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
15.3median
-228
Median 15.3Middle half 10.1 – 20.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 14.9 on Oct 20, 15.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horsford, 1+ pts | 95% | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 4.6K | |
| Horsford, 4+ pts | 93% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 181 | |
| Horsford, 7+ pts | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 625 | |
| Horsford, 10+ pts | 76% | ▼ 1 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 131 |
| Horsford, 13+ pts | 64% | ▲ 2 | 60¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 5.1K |
| Horsford, 16+ pts | 46% | 41¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 242 | |
| Horsford, 19+ pts | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 2.3K | |
| Horsford, 22+ pts | 19% | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 15.00 | |
| Horsford, 25+ pts | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 196 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nevada
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Why you should pay attention to NevadaPower. Politics. Policy. Every week, in depth. 10/25/2026 08:00 AM EDT Some important questions to consider with less than two weeks until the midterms: Is the dark art of oppo research still viable? Are the polls accurate? And how can we… -
Small plane crash lands on Nevada highway; United Airlines jet hits major turbulenceCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Emergencies aboard… -
Nevada's Republican governor fights to survive Trump undertowLAS VEGAS — Five days after settling back into the White House, President Trump embarked on a political victory lap that took him to a rally in downtown Las Vegas. Joined by Nevada’s Republican governor, Joe Lombardo, Trump told boisterous… -
OPINION: The Nevada secretary of state is not scared of those [expletive]It's not as eloquent as "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," but give Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) credit for his candor in this pugnacious political season. With the Department of Justice (DOJ) peppering his… -
FULL: General Election interview with Sandra Jauregui | Nevada Lt. GovernorTrack Las Vegas and Nevada 2026 election turnout, mail ballots, and signature cures in real time on the state’s new VIVID voter data dashboard. FULL: General Election interview with Sandra Jauregui | Nevada Lt. Governor FULL: General… -
Nevada launches online election data dashboardFriday, Oct. 23, 2026 | 2 a.m. The Nevada secretary of state’s office on Thursday launched an online dashboard that tracks statewide voter turnout, mail ballots and in-person voting. The Visual Interface for Voter Information and Data, or… -
Nevada gas prices, Reno surveillance cameras and Commerce Street closure🕴️ Joey Cusumano, last known associate of Las Vegas crime boss Tony Spilotro, died on Tuesday at 90 years old. Cusumano is credited in Francis Ford Coppola's The Cotton Club and oversaw the menu at Oscar's Steakhouse despite his inability… -
FULL: General Election interview with Stavros Anthony | Nevada Lt. GovernorRep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., discussed the economy, tariffs, the war in Iran, data center regulation and the Clark County lands bill following her primary win. FULL: General Election interview with Stavros Anthony | Nevada Lt. Governor ‘Voting… -
FEMA approves funding for Nevada, including Nye CountyFEMA lists one of the examples as a drainage and stormwater management project in Nye County. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced yesterday the approval of almost $51 million in… -
Nevada County joins a growing list of counties receiving demand letters from DOJNumerous counties in California received letters from the U.S. Department of Justice today. The letters allegedly contain names of voters the DOJ claims are non-citizens and have been mailed a ballot for the upcoming November midterm… -
What to know about Nevada accepting mail ballots after Election DayIn the heat of election season, you're likely to hear false claims that Nevada's elections are "rigged," in large part because the state accepts mail ballots after Election Day. Two days after Election Day in 2022, Donald Trump claimed… -
Early voting underway in Nye County and across NevadaThe secretary of state also announced the launch of new public election activity dashboards. The Silver State’s first week of early voting in this year’s general election has almost come to an end. Early voting in Nevada began on Saturday…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions