Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory
The odds
18.3median
137
Median 18.3Middle half 13.2 – 24.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 19.8 on Oct 19, 18.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gottheimer, 4+ pts | 94% | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| Gottheimer, 7+ pts | 93% | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 8.00 | |
| Gottheimer, 10+ pts | 87% | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 600 | |
| Gottheimer, 13+ pts | 76% | 71¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | ||
| Gottheimer, 16+ pts | 63% | 58¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | ||
| Gottheimer, 19+ pts | 46% | 41¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 226 | |
| Gottheimer, 22+ pts | 33% | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | ||
| Gottheimer, 25+ pts | 22% | 17¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 870 | |
| Gottheimer, 28+ pts | 13% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 308 | |
| Gottheimer, 31+ pts | 6% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| Gottheimer, 34+ pts | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | 35.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New Jersey
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Early voting begins in New Jersey for 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Early… -
Tom Kean had everything going for him. Then the Republican New Jersey congressman disappearedEven with a multimillion-dollar war chest, the US representative faces a stiff fight for his seat from Democrat Rebecca Bennett The stars above New Jersey seemed aligned for Tom Kean Jr. The Republican congressman had a war chest of more… -
Voters in Burlington County, New Jersey demand changes after waiting for hours at polling sitesNovember 6, 2024 / 6:56 PM EST / CBS Philadelphia Burlington County leaders called the experience of voters Tuesday, who waited hours in long lines at the polls, "unacceptable" and vowed a "top-to-bottom" review of election procedures to… -
How and when to vote early in New York and New Jersey for the 2026 general electionOctober 23, 2026 / 2:51 PM EDT / CBS New York Early voting gets underway Saturday in New York and New Jersey Polling sites will be open around New York City starting at 9 a.m. Saturday. The early voting period will continue through Sunday… -
'I basically snapped': New Jersey mayor charges at resident during chaotic council meetingVideo captures Pemberton Township Mayor Matthew Bianchini rushing toward a resident during a heated council meeting before being restrained by others in attendance (Credit: Ryan Elmore/Pine Barrens Tribune via Storyful). A New Jersey… -
New video shows New Jersey mayor charging at resident during heated council meetingFox News New video shows New Jersey mayor charging at resident during heated council meeting Video released by Pemberton Township shows Mayor Matthew Bianchini rushing toward a resident during a tense council meeting before being… -
Pemberton, New Jersey mayor charges at someone during heated council meetingCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Pemberton… -
Federal oversight ended, so Sherrill proposed cuts to New Jersey’s child welfare systemNew Jersey spent more than two decades rebuilding a child welfare system once described as dysfunctional, eventually making enough progress to escape federal court oversight and rank among the nation’s better-performing states on several… -
New Jersey politicians getting hot and botheredWhen Matthew Bianchini, the mayor of Pemberton Township in South Jersey, made headlines for charging after and yelling at an audience member and at a Oct. 21 meeting, it was not the first time a public meeting got out of hand in New… -
Early voting opens in New York and New JerseyNEW YORK (WABC) -- Early voting began Saturday in New York and New Jersey as voters began casting ballots in key races across the region. The candidates for New York governor spent Friday making their cases to voters ahead of the start of… -
House Republicans subpoena New Jersey for noncitizen voter recordsMikie Sherrill’s administration has only produced 12 documents in three months, the subpoena alleges. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan and three of his fellow Republicans have issued a subpoena for records on how thousands of noncitizens… -
New Jersey Democrats Want to Ban Many of The Things We Use Every DayHome » U.S. News » Government » New Jersey Democrats Want to Ban Many of The Things We Use Every Day Government, Jackson Township, New Jersey TRENTON, NJ — Everyday purchases ranging from chewing gum to household cleaners could face new…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions