Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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North Carolina's 14th District margin of victory
The odds
8.88median
-228
Median 8.88Middle half 3.44 – 14.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.57 on Oct 19, 8.88 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore, 1+ pts | 86% | 83¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 50.00 | |
| Moore, 4+ pts | 73% | ▲ 1 | 71¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 65.00 |
| Moore, 7+ pts | 60% | ▲ 4 | 55¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 200 |
| Moore, 10+ pts | 44% | ▲ 6 | 39¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | |
| Moore, 13+ pts | 29% | ▲ 7 | 24¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | |
| Moore, 16+ pts | 18% | ▲ 7 | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 400 |
| Moore, 19+ pts | 12% | ▲ 7 | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 400 |
| Moore, 22+ pts | 4% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | $11.24 | ||
| Moore, 25+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 52.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: North Carolina
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Unpacking early voting trends in North Carolina and FloridaCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Early voting trends… -
WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North CarolinaDemocratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper speaks to supporters and hosts a Get Out the Vote concert in Carrboro, North Carolina. WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper… -
Mail Ballot Rejections Tick Up Under GOP-Backed Rules in North CarolinaOct 22, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT North Carolina Governor Josh Stein is warning that strict new Republican-backed rules for voting by mail are contributing to an increase in rejected absentee ballots. Stein, a Democrat, said the new rules… -
Tracking the early voting surge in battleground North CarolinaVoter turnout is already high in North Carolina, where a key Senate seat is on the ballot. CNN's Dianne Gallagher explains why the high numbers could mean trouble for Republicans. Discover more videos, including live streams and exclusive… -
10 Noncitizens Arrested for Illegal Voting in North CarolinaTen noncitizens have been arrested and charged for allegedly casting votes illegally in various elections in North Carolina. Three people were from Germany, two from Jamaica, and one each from El Salvador, Haiti, Canada, Panama, and… -
Donald Trump’s egregious extortion of North Carolina | OpinionThe Trump Administration’s extortion of North Carolina through the withholding of federal funding has been one of the most egregious actions that any president has done to an American state. Recently, it has shown a continual pattern of… -
The Senate Race in North Carolina: Our Nation Needs Michael WhatleyEighteen months ago, I had the good fortune of attending a presentation by Michael Whatley, back then the national GOP chair and currently a candidate for the U.S. Senate, running against Democrat Roy Cooper. The evening with Mr. Whatley… -
Republicans retreat from North Carolina as Trump admits Democrats are likely to win the Senate seatTrump has seemed to concede that Democrat Roy Cooper will win the pivotal race. Down-ballot Republicans are “extremely nervous” for what throwing in the towel means for them. BREAKING: Supreme Court says New Hampshire student IDs can’t be… -
North Carolina joins 25 states in urging Congress for AI regulationBREAKING: Miguel Salguero Olivares found guilty of first-degree murder and rape of Faith Hedgepeth The DTH extends Community Advisory Board application deadline to Oct. 28 On Sept. 23, N.C. Attorney General Jeff Jackson joined a bipartisan… -
Unaffiliated voters’ growing influence in North CarolinaCHARLOTTE (QUEEN CITY NEWS) -- With a lot of seats up for grabs on election day, politicians are looking to pick up support wherever they can, especially among those who do not claim a specific party. In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters… -
North Carolina Trump supporters face rising costs but aren't backing away from presidentFox News North Carolina Trump supporters face rising costs but aren't backing away from president North Carolina voters spoke to Fox News Digital about gas prices, Iran and control of Congress after President Donald Trump held a rally at… -
The North Carolina Democrat Holding Out for IsraelNC Dept of Public Safety (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) Pro-Israel hawks like U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper are a rapidly shrinking group within the Democratic Party. One measure of this shift is that the once-influential Democratic Majority for…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions