Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
Install
Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
2median
-124
Median 2
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.23 on Oct 20, 2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 56% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 10.00 | |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 45% | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 2.9K | |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 28% | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.3K | |
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 1.5K | |
| Republicans, 12+ pts | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 368 | |
| Republicans, 15+ pts | 5% | 0¢ | 9¢ | $11.24 | 205 | |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 4% | 0¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | 744 | |
| Republicans, 21+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $17.24 | 3.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Missouri
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Missouri Redistricting Push Goes Quiet“The Republican campaign for a gerrymandered congressional map in Missouri has gone quiet — less than two weeks before the election,” the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “After fighting a yearlong legal battle to keep the map off the… -
Misinformation spreads online as early voting gets underway in MissouriMostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.. About 5,000 people have already casted their ballot in Boone County for the Nov. 3 election, but misinformation surrounding voting procedures has made the rounds on social media. In a Facebook post… -
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy to return to practice, per HC Eli DrinkwitzUniversity of Missouri football coach Eli Drinkwitz announced Sunday that "after consulting with our medical team," running back Ahmad Hardy will return to practice for the first time this season. Days after a New York Times investigation… -
Who’s bankrolling Missouri’s final election push ahead of the midterms?Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.. Missouri Democrats confidently predict voter discontent will deliver victories in tight legislative races, but campaign finance reports show Republicans well provisioned for defense. And Republicans… -
Groups rally in Columbia against Missouri's Amendment 3 and Proposition AMostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.. COLUMBIA — Less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm election, five different groups came together to discuss Missouri's Amendment 3 and Proposition A. Members of LiUNA Local 955, Abortion Action… -
KY3 Digital Extra: New polling shares insight into Missouri's midterm electionWDBJ7 KY3 Digital Extra: New polling shares insight into Missouri's midterm election Democracy potluck encourages voter turnout ahead of midterms Arrest made in sextortion case tied to Streetsboro teen’s death Saint John's AME church fall… - Missouri Catholics promote pro-life amendment ahead of election dayJonah McKeown, National Catholic Register on Monday, October 26, 2026 Missouri voters have a chance to reverse an expansive 2024 pro-abortion measure, but the Show-Me State remains a complicated pro-life battleground. With all your heart…
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Missouri’s GOP Has a New Strategy to Ban Abortion—Attack Trans KidsJennifer Smith, MD, Obstetrics & Gynecology, practices in Missouri. It's already a dangerous state for pregnant women—and if a ballot measure banning abortion passes, Smith says her patients will be less safe.Theo R. Welling Sophie… -
Incumbent Fitzpatrick seeks reelection as Missouri state auditorJEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (WGEM) - Missouri voters will see a familiar name on the ballot for state auditor this election. Scott Fitzpatrick, the current Missouri state auditor, is running for reelection. Fitzpatrick faces two political… -
Show-Me-State Politics: School districts oppose Missouri's new grading system; state auditor's raceKLTV.com Show-Me-State Politics: School districts oppose Missouri's new grading system; state auditor's race Former student speaks about school security guard charged with voyeurism in Tempe 3 shot at Tempe Halloween house party, police… -
Planned south St. Louis statue draws ire of Missouri AG. Says it's described as 'demonic'ST. LOUIS — The planned installation of an 18-foot sculpture in south St. Louis has drawn ire from Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, who said in a social media post residents had described it as a “demonic affront to faith.” The two are… -
Missouri backs Nebraska’s parental rights social media lawPublished 2:27 pm Friday, October 23, 2026 JEFFERSON CITY — Missouri has joined a multistate friend-of-the-court brief supporting Nebraska’s Parental Rights in Social Media Act in the case NetChoice v. Hilgers, Attorney General Catherine…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions